TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Knicks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Mavericks, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,940,954
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,126,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,940,954 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 837 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84db…aeebbacked Mavericks18c162,485$28,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133,771.111,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks17c51,395$8,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,720.693,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Mavericks20c50,000$10,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,849.7335235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Mavericks18c45,113$8,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,992.6630845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Knicks1c41,096$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.8127917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Knicks1c40,008$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.1264517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f38…2e85backed Knicks0c33,410$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.82540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea32…8870backed Mavericks18c30,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,6004744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Knicks1c27,526$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.555213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccdb…ffa9backed Knicks79c25,316$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0003884.2%32 W · 6 L+10.8wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+59.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Mavericks22c24,800$5,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,343.8419653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Mavericks35c20,878$7,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,572.029857.1%56 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks70c20,534$14,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,361.14,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Knicks49c20,000$9,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,817.121,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Mavericks17c19,999$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,599.1514243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Mavericks53c19,803$10,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,208.751,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Knicks24c18,206$4,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,376.221,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Mavericks20c18,000$3,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,49046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Mavericks32c17,833$5,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,164.252,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee39…a40abacked Mavericks66c17,739$11,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,044.72933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Knicks80c16,701$13,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,360.8522453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Knicks4c15,978$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.181,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Mavericks18c15,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,30020551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Knicks0c12,770$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.117211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Mavericks26c12,741$3,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,428.219136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Knicks5c12,721$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.941,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks19c11,454$2,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,307.694,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Mavericks18c11,400$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,309.9961835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Knicks76c10,400$7,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,948.299938.4%38 W · 61 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Mavericks27c10,218$2,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,422.6561939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Knicks61c10,002$6,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,146.2177348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Mavericks21c10,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,90027424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Knicks70c9,412$6,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,623.313,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Mavericks22c9,168$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,167.5648938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6125…1b5fbacked Mavericks34c9,049$3,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,934.235345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed Mavericks29c8,924$2,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,336.265444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Knicks7c8,860$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.1581529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Mavericks23c8,696$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,695.6515435.7%55 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Knicks0c8,381$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.288820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Knicks67c8,364$5,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,634.565,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Mavericks32c8,202$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,580.2485344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Knicks78c7,727$6,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,058.912,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Knicks23c7,450$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick35cpaid-77.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaf65…f5ffbacked Knicks43c7,390$3,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,142.611050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Knicks8c7,295$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.9683039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Mavericks22c7,150$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,576.981,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Mavericks18c7,120$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,838.0412541.6%52 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Knicks46c7,070$3,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,251.571,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Knicks78c7,000$5,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,459.9414945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Mavericks21c6,999$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,529.2113148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ee…6605backed Mavericks33c6,688$2,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,509.1511251.8%58 W · 54 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Knicks78c6,238$4,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,865.8371547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Knicks66c5,991$3,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,924.682,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks54c5,925$3,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,735.448,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Mavericks18c5,556$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,555.5633735.3%119 W · 218 L+1.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Mavericks19c5,361$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,340.9548845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Knicks5c5,296$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.846025%15 W · 45 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Mavericks21c5,285$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,157.1847028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Mavericks32c5,199$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,530.011,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Knicks78c5,025$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,919.516370.6%115 W · 48 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Knicks67c5,000$3,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3504868.8%33 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Mavericks21c5,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,949.7446928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfcbc…71c1backed Knicks78c4,914$3,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8333050%15 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-7.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Knicks63c4,872$3,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,092.2714751%75 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Knicks78c4,860$3,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,790.817653.4%94 W · 82 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed Knicks19c4,800$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.0945657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6870…5826backed Knicks57c4,782$2,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,748.2654853.8%295 W · 253 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Mavericks20c4,537$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,643.8439958.4%233 W · 166 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7777…1d3dbacked Knicks78c4,500$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5101163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+62%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Knicks71c4,330$3,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,074.0313250%66 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Mavericks40c4,223$1,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,542.3812143%52 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Knicks1c4,135$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.344639.1%18 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7f…2658backed Mavericks54c4,130$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.82157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…9249backed Mavericks22c4,100$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,198475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+106.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89da…a6c2backed Knicks6c4,049$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2271034.9%5 W · 98 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Mavericks43c4,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,28039744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Knicks18c4,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.057353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Knicks73c4,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.9944337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Knicks65c3,975$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60041954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Knicks78c3,875$3,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,014.3155346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Knicks78c3,846$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Knicks30c3,761$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.1224752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Mavericks51c3,680$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.827950.5%141 W · 138 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x112c…eeb4backed Knicks11c3,636$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Knicks73c3,569$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6006756.7%38 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1909…a2c9backed Knicks43c3,565$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.792556%14 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e6…e300backed Knicks68c3,500$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,379.981526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-52.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Mavericks29c3,448$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.2876746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9373…4c6bbacked Knicks78c3,436$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,680.08650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks78c3,243$2,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.299,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Knicks68c3,237$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20023052.6%121 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed Knicks78c3,136$2,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,446.1822857.5%131 W · 97 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a31…509fbacked Knicks78c3,100$2,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,417.971361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Mavericks18c3,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4605455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Mavericks19c3,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,43032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb763…247dbacked Mavericks17c3,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4801338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ce8…d50dbacked Mavericks22c3,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,340450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+68%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Mavericks18c3,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.9937944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba31…de52backed Knicks1c2,976$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.73190%0 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Knicks29c2,900$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85537930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.