NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5150aa348588fdff79d9803039e5fcbe894f20c4102d6438584b85fc23dc02a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Knicks, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mavericks | 46c | 3,652$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971.95 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Knicks | 54c | 2,800$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Mavericks | 45c | 1,422$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.17 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Knicks | 54c | 1,124$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.96 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…dbaabacked Knicks | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 379 | 30.6%116 W · 263 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…c65cbacked Mavericks | 49c | 888$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…cbaabacked Knicks | 55c | 505.45$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Knicks | 52c | 414.98$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 46c | 399.97$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…cde2backed Knicks | 51c | 344$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Knicks | 52c | 338.21$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.51 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c92…11d3backed Knicks | 51c | 322$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87df…0317backed Mavericks | 49c | 274.22$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.22 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…1743backed Knicks | 51c | 222$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Mavericks | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Knicks | 52c | 204.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Knicks | 52c | 187.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 375 | 57.6%216 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…b057backed Mavericks | 48c | 177.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 211 | 64.5%136 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…aeccbacked Mavericks | 50c | 154$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Mavericks | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 282 | 45.4%128 W · 154 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mavericks | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Mavericks | 53c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mavericks | 52c | 78.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Mavericks | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Knicks | 47c | 61.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Mavericks | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Knicks | 49c | 31.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Mavericks | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Knicks | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-11.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. KnicksMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.