NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ed64204b27aa1c459f653308f1d1365414e8e6907568a4cc3df22a476188352
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Knicks, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mavericks | 53c | 3,759$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.86 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Knicks | 57c | 1,747$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Knicks | 47c | 1,399$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.36 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Knicks | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.75 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks | 49c | 1,005$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.26 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 54c | 734.06$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…0103backed Mavericks | 76c | 639.1$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Knicks | 24c | 602.1$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…996dbacked Mavericks | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 51c | 426.81$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.14 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed Mavericks | 52c | 409.62$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Knicks | 7c | 217.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Knicks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Knicks | 68c | 189.89$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Knicks | 22c | 125.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Knicks | 72c | 112$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Mavericks | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 456 | 57%260 W · 196 L | +44.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Knicks | 71c | 76.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Mavericks | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…7d4cbacked Mavericks | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Mavericks | 29c | 53.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…ad89backed Knicks | 70c | 52.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Knicks | 51c | 41.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Knicks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Knicks | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd326…3da7backed Mavericks | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. KnicksMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.