Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7e4c1eec973fe72ff3c0a7e758e06944f69ff3fbff304672eb90e91b5924896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $569,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $419,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $569,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 1c | 58,405$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.96 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…7b4abacked Yes | 0c | 27,806$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…4875backed Yes | 5c | 20,506$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…6283backed Yes | 1c | 12,177$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 3c | 11,625$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.96 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 1c | 9,217$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcf…bbbcbacked Yes | 6c | 8,299$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 2c | 7,977$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.71 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 7,936$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.66 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 7,089$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.78 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…3994backed Yes | 1c | 6,894$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,678$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 2c | 6,413$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.49 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…7960backed Yes | 0c | 6,094$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 5,717$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.51 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 5,151$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.77 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147f…49edbacked Yes | 1c | 5,109$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 5,108$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,941$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 3c | 4,551$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.3 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 3c | 4,484$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.86 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 5c | 4,338$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.91 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…26f4backed Yes | 1c | 4,089$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 3,982$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.02 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524f…9dcebacked Yes | 7c | 3,818$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc1…d84dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,554$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 3,064$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 2,847$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,708$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 1c | 2,694$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 4c | 2,424$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 1c | 2,420$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,368$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…fb24backed Yes | 3c | 2,336$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccca…4c02backed Yes | 2c | 2,290$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 1c | 2,278$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 3c | 2,200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 14c | 2,160$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 6c | 2,100$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 2,070$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…0574backed Yes | 3c | 2,055$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a10…ba54backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 1c | 1,921$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,914$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x225f…fc34backed Yes | 5c | 1,913$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…07edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,825$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,769$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…4338backed Yes | 1c | 1,755$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 6c | 1,689$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…d019backed Yes | 5c | 1,589$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…c75ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,549$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…1a1fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,507$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,492$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d63…115cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,488$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 1,413$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 1,405$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 5c | 1,400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c17…6a7ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,389$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1557…87c4backed Yes | 1c | 1,382$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…796fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,255$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…bed0backed Yes | 2c | 1,251$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,246$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 6c | 1,195$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…0a68backed Yes | 4c | 1,188$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,159$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…3f39backed Yes | 1c | 1,063$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…8e70backed Yes | 1c | 1,035$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,008$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 5c | 1,004$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…1244backed Yes | 1c | 1,002$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 9c | 1,001$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 3c | 999.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 989.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d9a1backed Yes | 7c | 986.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…a9c1backed Yes | 1c | 970$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Yes | 6c | 963.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6095…b9fbbacked Yes | 5c | 953.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…9439backed Yes | 5c | 935.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 4c | 912$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked Yes | 3c | 899.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…a86cbacked Yes | 3c | 881.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…8626backed Yes | 6c | 823.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 3c | 816.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe413…32d3backed Yes | 3c | 807.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…4d66backed Yes | 5c | 800$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…cd4fbacked Yes | 2c | 787.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91a9…ec28backed Yes | 3c | 783.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…2ffabacked Yes | 3c | 768.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 5c | 749.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 3c | 719.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 3c | 680$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7758…7125backed Yes | 2c | 668.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a9…41d1backed Yes | 7c | 661.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 656.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…980ebacked Yes | 8c | 637.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…2e2abacked Yes | 3c | 621.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.