Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe282e22fbf3c386ee6d8bf0b96d77a1647c6c6805d09045b8247aa47e7db66a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $721,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $565,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $721,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 376 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 2c | 52,227$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.2 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 2c | 17,117$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.41 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…8262backed Yes | 6c | 16,329$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 10c | 11,049$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.45 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 10,926$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.06 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 8,719$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.29 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 4c | 8,672$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.11 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67eb…7ed0backed Yes | 35c | 8,428$2,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,974.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…0574backed Yes | 2c | 8,091$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.5 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 16c | 7,407$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.71 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fc…560fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 6c | 6,599$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.8 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes | 20c | 6,192$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.34 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 14c | 5,771$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.38 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 4c | 5,667$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 4c | 5,292$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.46 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…f8d2backed Yes | 4c | 5,164$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 19c | 5,144$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.42 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 4,930$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.8 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 7c | 4,249$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.26 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,967$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.57 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 3,964$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…740bbacked Yes | 19c | 3,900$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 3,889$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.78 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 3,837$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.6 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,821$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 2c | 3,806$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 3c | 3,766$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b37…930dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,748$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a01…fee6backed Yes | 11c | 3,743$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14ff…74edbacked Yes | 15c | 3,576$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c2…40b0backed Yes | 15c | 3,399$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…be73backed Yes | 1c | 3,398$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,335$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.25 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 5c | 3,236$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.78 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 79c | 3,080$2,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.6 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 6c | 3,077$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.64 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 3,037$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 15c | 3,024$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e1…1e82backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 11c | 2,712$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 14c | 2,648$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.5 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284b…f1ddbacked Yes | 15c | 2,611$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 12c | 2,604$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.28 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb5…e485backed Yes | 19c | 2,558$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2b…b71ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,536$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed Yes | 12c | 2,460$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…8826backed Yes | 10c | 2,433$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…d1debacked Yes | 23c | 2,354$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,275$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 6c | 2,250$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.54 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 6c | 2,222$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 2,148$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a10…ba54backed Yes | 10c | 2,130$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.4 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,128$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,075$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 23c | 1,713$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.73 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Yes | 3c | 1,712$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 18c | 1,692$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.56 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…c919backed Yes | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 17c | 1,665$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 10c | 1,600$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.3 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc481…58d4backed Yes | 13c | 1,600$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa55…c6aebacked Yes | 19c | 1,586$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9c…9b1dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,562$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…14ddbacked Yes | 11c | 1,500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…d019backed Yes | 10c | 1,472$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…5b8dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,451$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.47 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 8c | 1,435$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.95 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,370$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…f379backed Yes | 11c | 1,367$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 4c | 1,347$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 9c | 1,308$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08b…9d23backed Yes | 14c | 1,273$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2323…5dffbacked Yes | 16c | 1,266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…af0bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,251$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,244$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -11.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…4229backed Yes | 16c | 1,215$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 12c | 1,200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fe…5d05backed Yes | 18c | 1,190$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…4c53backed Yes | 8c | 1,187$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aeb…0c42backed Yes | 19c | 1,181$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb01…b811backed Yes | 2c | 1,158$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,149$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9121backed Yes | 9c | 1,116$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5b…94d7backed Yes | 15c | 1,107$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca4…348fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,106$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,102$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,100$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 16c | 1,095$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.07 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a0…7563backed Yes | 16c | 1,070$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 9c | 1,060$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae12…4271backed Yes | 17c | 1,057$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 7c | 1,047$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…87f1backed Yes | 20c | 1,025$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…03f4backed Yes | 19c | 1,023$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…53ffbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.