Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b4467a565be20b12058d8fa2e6a114441830be2407fb8d9799a25536537f432
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $352,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $277,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $352,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 13,086$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 5c | 11,834$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.07 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…a8c2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 14cpaid | +979.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,857$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 6,368$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…692cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,510$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 5c | 4,956$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.44 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 4,096$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1439…933ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,934$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 5c | 3,554$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0744…b039backed Yes | 7c | 3,545$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 3,415$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.01 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,290$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.84 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 6c | 2,814$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.7 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 2,411$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.57 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,368$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 2,223$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.08 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 2,176$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 4c | 2,140$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,018$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,993$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,904$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,631$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 6c | 1,600$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9121backed Yes | 9c | 1,494$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,357$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 7c | 1,342$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 1,286$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 1,283$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…de9abacked Yes | 7c | 1,259$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23c…10febacked Yes | 1c | 1,222$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 5c | 1,139$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,117$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,116$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,104$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a37…1f82backed Yes | 7c | 1,058$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 5c | 1,036$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284b…f1ddbacked Yes | 7c | 999.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 3c | 969.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 5c | 957.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…6c0cbacked Yes | 3c | 935.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a53…bee0backed Yes | 6c | 910.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…3b20backed Yes | 6c | 871$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…8e24backed Yes | 7c | 870.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c95…5994backed Yes | 8c | 725$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…efc0backed Yes | 6c | 716.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 6c | 715.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes | 6c | 709.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6984…4c1dbacked Yes | 9c | 704.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…5b8dbacked Yes | 2c | 684.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 7c | 669.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c3…9f0fbacked Yes | 6c | 657.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674e…ba9abacked Yes | 4c | 610.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 4c | 600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…4a2abacked Yes | 10c | 501.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…929ebacked Yes | 7c | 494.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 464.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…6db5backed Yes | 7c | 423.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba3…5547backed Yes | 5c | 406.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0886…be0abacked Yes | 6c | 401.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca4…348fbacked Yes | 6c | 373.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 6c | 352.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…95c1backed Yes | 8c | 350$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75de…ff69backed Yes | 6c | 329.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -82%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6776…d65ebacked Yes | 5c | 315.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef66…4ccabacked Yes | 6c | 315.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4019…db7fbacked Yes | 8c | 287.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…aa93backed Yes | 7c | 286.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…dc6fbacked Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -87%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 5c | 258.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe46e…c07dbacked Yes | 6c | 256.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +161.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694f…5326backed Yes | 8c | 256.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…e351backed Yes | 8c | 249.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e6…8197backed Yes | 9c | 233.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…c4d6backed Yes | 7c | 230$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…67b4backed Yes | 9c | 228.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…4f15backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 9c | 169.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…4d27backed Yes | 12c | 167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…2fe2backed Yes | 12c | 166.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…01e6backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…c462backed Yes | 11c | 101.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…1a03backed No | 75c | 50.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.