Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe74d60861ae1460d32415d9c4176559c1c4a9bfc64a85157e5a17ef4d0e6ec6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,015,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $809,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,015,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 1c | 80,812$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.62 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…6e71backed Yes | 0c | 67,797$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 1c | 66,399$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.93 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…6283backed Yes | 1c | 28,006$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.82 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…689bbacked Yes | 1c | 19,531$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 1c | 16,820$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…2b44backed Yes | 1c | 13,603$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c1…bed5backed Yes | 1c | 12,989$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 12,286$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.54 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8852…d180backed Yes | 2c | 11,021$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…6159backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 0c | 10,881$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be6…a799backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…aa35backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,589$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.03 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,539$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 2c | 9,396$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.83 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 9,012$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 1c | 8,993$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 2c | 8,302$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.37 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 7,685$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…aeb9backed Yes | 1c | 7,611$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…ee68backed Yes | 1c | 6,576$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes | 2c | 6,398$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c2…186ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,287$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 1c | 5,768$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 1c | 5,700$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9286…a77dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,606$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…d7c8backed Yes | 0c | 5,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 3c | 5,060$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.93 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 1c | 4,903$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 2c | 4,811$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.06 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,677$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ea…6f36backed Yes | 1c | 4,517$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 4,503$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…999abacked Yes | 0c | 4,496$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 1c | 4,478$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 4,463$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 2c | 4,242$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…32f9backed Yes | 1c | 4,188$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…6d1cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,186$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,939$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 3,937$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1efc…4fc9backed Yes | 1c | 3,848$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87c…d372backed Yes | 1c | 3,848$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 1c | 3,831$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b22ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,607$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 3c | 3,400$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…a86cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,332$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,325$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5495…d542backed Yes | 1c | 3,083$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 2,859$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…9439backed Yes | 2c | 2,799$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,765$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a10…ba54backed Yes | 2c | 2,679$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 2,662$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 3c | 2,619$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,533$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…4d66backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…8626backed Yes | 3c | 2,394$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed4…c735backed Yes | 1c | 2,374$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce1…ab45backed Yes | 1c | 2,319$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,279$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed8…6e31backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd973…643fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,132$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…a4eebacked Yes | 4c | 2,096$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -73%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e6…8197backed Yes | 1c | 2,081$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…974dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,051$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 2,005$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,974$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 1,874$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…698abacked Yes | 2c | 1,866$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 1c | 1,855$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 1c | 1,855$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9a…eee1backed Yes | 1c | 1,811$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…0379backed Yes | 1c | 1,755$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…07fcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,703$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd2…0562backed Yes | 1c | 1,625$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…26f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,620$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c46…7804backed Yes | 1c | 1,615$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,558$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…8e24backed Yes | 1c | 1,544$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6d…0556backed Yes | 1c | 1,543$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…e54fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes | 3c | 1,519$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d63…115cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,506$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e93…78bcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4637…fd78backed Yes | 1c | 1,497$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…1787backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 1,436$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,410$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x946c…fd50backed Yes | 2c | 1,278$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…7ba1backed Yes | 1c | 1,275$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.