TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x87a2…af52

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
90
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: AI, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category AI at 57 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT3237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-41.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.56
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$117
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,260
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.4
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,008Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+48%+$1,442.5
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$60
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.83
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$82
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,460Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$540
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$56.11
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$398Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$397.93
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$49.35
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,129Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+226.7%+$2,560.5
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.09
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$298.79
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.06
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$948Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$252
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.82
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.55
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.72
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.95
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+29.8%+$97.72
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT2650%13 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.56
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.23
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$22.3
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.63
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$37.92
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$35.35
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+132.2%+$96.79
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+64.5%+$58.55
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.56
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.72
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.02
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.29
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+313.8%+$45.78
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.13
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+38.4%+$13.31
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+114.8%+$174.02
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on May 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+73.1%+$13.8
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.41
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.93
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+50.1%+$23.11
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+187.9%+$21.9
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.98
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+74.1%+$31.29
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.5
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.21
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$368Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$175.55
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+63.3%+$76.32
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+38.4%+$61.91
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$407Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+91.7%+$373.17
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$48
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$91
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.6
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+92%+$201.62
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+42.8%+$53.38
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$40.4
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+46.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$248.75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.