Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe308b588e8a26bc94de8a93cca5c4eee3d68d9176f5c8a60ffb8646d2e86b29f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,239$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.71 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 7c | 774.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 19c | 753.36$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.13 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 683.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 62c | 617.35$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.99 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 16c | 578.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.3 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 569.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 527.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 16c | 438.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 19c | 405.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 10c | 386.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 386.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.91 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 327.92$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 299.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.98 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed No | 73c | 289.8$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 12c | 284.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed No | 72c | 276.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 21c | 254.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.57 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 249.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 229.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 27c | 229.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 5c | 209.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 6c | 209.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 34c | 197.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 154.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…8cc1backed No | 67c | 150.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 146.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 13c | 129.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.55 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 9c | 123.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 33c | 116.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 111.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 10c | 105.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.11 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed No | 72c | 104.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2084…e384backed Yes | 15c | 102.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 30c | 98.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 31c | 86.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 13c | 82.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.02 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 53c | 79.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 32c | 76.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 22c | 75.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 17c | 74.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 57c | 71.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 36c | 69.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 42c | 64.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 63.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 16c | 63.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked No | 25c | 60.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 43c | 56.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 56.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 18c | 56.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 35c | 55.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5089…0193backed Yes | 22c | 51.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +347%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…33cfbacked Yes | 40c | 51.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 45c | 45.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 44.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…e151backed Yes | 55c | 44.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 71c | 38.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 51c | 37.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…0822backed Yes | 41c | 36.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd837…3d06backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 21.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 69c | 19.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 73c | 18.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 65c | 15.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or below on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.