TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,952
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,238

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,952 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes13c1,202$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2431062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes68c953.13$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.9443238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes33c882.97$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.144,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes38c684.92$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.7465749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No56c616.1$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.1445162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes69c540.04$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.1324841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes16c533.36$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3641051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed No28c480$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.620231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes16c413.01$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes6c324$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.286073.3%20 W · 587 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes19c321.49$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.265,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x079e…6f6dbacked Yes65c300$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked No38c276.1$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.7424066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked No33c239.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.834624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No42c228.09$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.0676755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked No49c227.89$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.7420027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes61c227.43$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2292028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2232…dcd2backed Yes9c225.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202040%8 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No45c193.74$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6470741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes8c167.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.883435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b6…20febacked Yes66c166.89$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102035%7 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes36c166.54$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.853,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6011…b31ebacked No49c158.63$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2316295.7%155 W · 7 L+61.2wins+0.38per pick58cpaid+97.3%equal weight86+0.33 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes26c155.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.814,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No76c145.32$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5342130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes18c135.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.718,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes16c134.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.956731.3%21 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No29c119$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.312,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…54c9backed No67c115.8$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.298356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No28c109$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.881,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked No29c106.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.7116144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes41c104.75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3410642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.61,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes62c95.7$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No47c90.94$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.524,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c82.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.117,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes17c81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No67c80.43$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.862,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No36c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.988650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes38c76.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No49c74.39$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.933,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes36c74.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278134.6%28 W · 53 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No75c70$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7563757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes38c69.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.451,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No18c69.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7829717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed Yes50c69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4124053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No34c66.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8484930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No51c63.5$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No24c62.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.531,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes53c62$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.681,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes57c59.07$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6649547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No38c55.93$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.751,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c49.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.993,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No30c49.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.791,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked No30c48.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2830665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No33c48.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.555,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes23c47.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.863,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes25c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2512735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.021,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No42c42.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6251631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6705…234abacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9132…65fdbacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.61,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No80c39.49$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.91,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes52c38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7254154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes33c36.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c35.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.194,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No80c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No56c34.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.261,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No64c34.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.352,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed No44c32.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0320144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No77c30.75$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9610133.7%34 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.59017.8%16 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed Yes45c28.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8271159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x823a…61abbacked No66c26.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.277869.2%54 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked Yes60c26.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.730168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7299…a763backed No60c25.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1723668.2%161 W · 75 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed No71c25.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.246053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb51…329bbacked No47c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.256426.6%17 W · 47 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No70c22.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.591,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No80c20.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1188973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ab…5cf7backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820852.4%109 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes73c18.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8415152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2632…6475backed Yes66c18.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.093246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No79c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.7399571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.