Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aac319536aedc45bb3ee6a9a62af2811bb26dc0c39b89f9e0aae04f5e7dcc9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 23c | 434.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 323.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 303.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 277.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 221.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 14c | 132.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 16c | 125.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 31c | 123.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 116.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 113.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 33c | 104.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 100.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 85.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 39c | 80.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 24c | 79.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 33c | 79.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 68c | 78.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 76.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 77c | 74.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 71.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 71.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 28c | 71.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 38c | 67.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 79c | 63.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 62.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 72c | 61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 60.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…a752backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 52.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 52.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 28c | 49.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 41.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 35.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 32.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 31.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…a8b8backed No | 66c | 30.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 75c | 28.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 27.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 72c | 25.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 70c | 25.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 72c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 19.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or below on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.