Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61985c15b0e91452c008f554d0db91a3cddd540f104d92b9f71549a07b5570e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 0c | 11,224$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 3,668$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,043$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…b4e1backed No | 76c | 900.48$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 36c | 577.11$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.48 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 499.81$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.41 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 37c | 400.35$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.78 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 26c | 399.68$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.63 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 351.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 350.18$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 339.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 25c | 323.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 36c | 284.53$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 62c | 280.28$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 37c | 279.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.62 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 270.7$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 35c | 260.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa848…8a1fbacked Yes | 35c | 240.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 235.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 233.14$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 219.89$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 207.28$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 194.57$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 25c | 191.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 78c | 189.28$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 49c | 175.67$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 19c | 164.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…3260backed No | 77c | 162.73$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 19c | 154.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 34c | 150.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 26c | 149.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…62afbacked Yes | 21c | 145.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 17c | 137.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 35c | 130.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 29c | 121.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 70c | 120.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 119.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 113.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 109.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 21c | 106.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 23c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 30c | 83.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed Yes | 35c | 81.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 49c | 76.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f06…fd3ebacked No | 78c | 76.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 31c | 74.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 71c | 70.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 71c | 70.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 70.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 69.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed No | 67c | 69.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 68.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 21c | 66.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 21c | 65.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 57c | 65.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked No | 77c | 65.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…4db4backed Yes | 39c | 64.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 80c | 60.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 36c | 57.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 55.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 54c | 52.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…be53backed Yes | 30c | 50.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec5…20e0backed No | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…ecf6backed No | 76c | 49.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 25c | 49.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 52c | 46.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 69c | 45.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 29c | 43.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 76c | 43.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 41c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes | 36c | 38.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…4e79backed Yes | 29c | 38.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 36.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 36.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…2598backed Yes | 40c | 33.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2f…e5ffbacked No | 61c | 32.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…e224backed No | 78c | 32.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…72debacked No | 76c | 31.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 68c | 30.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.