Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2344e280ed911af96c5ac1dc73b3bed74194c6a2ba69a711682b052ba84883ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 73c | 1,633$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 928.18$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 2c | 729.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 25c | 648.94$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.11 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 406.14$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 12c | 383.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 23c | 360.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 340.61$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.58 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 337$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 62c | 332.86$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.65 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 44c | 329.24$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.77 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 294.43$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 284.28$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 42c | 283.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.44 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 224$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 196.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 31c | 196.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 30c | 189.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed No | 12c | 168.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 162.41$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 159$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 157.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.14 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 149.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 29c | 149.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.97 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 149.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.12 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 37c | 149.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 139.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 28c | 134.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 38c | 134.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 65c | 131.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 34c | 128.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.31 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 11c | 114.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 47c | 106.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 63c | 101.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked No | 61c | 99.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 99.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 64c | 97.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 49c | 96.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 71c | 89.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 83.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 83.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 62c | 79.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 78.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 70c | 75.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 75.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 72.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 71c | 70.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 36c | 69.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 65c | 69.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…fae1backed Yes | 50c | 69.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 38c | 68.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 63.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 63.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 38c | 59.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 56c | 58.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed No | 76c | 57.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 71c | 56.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 26c | 53.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…1fe9backed Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 32c | 51.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 27c | 50.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 36c | 49.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 75c | 48.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 22c | 48.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed No | 63c | 47.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 38c | 46.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 55c | 44.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 45c | 43.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…0010backed Yes | 38c | 43.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 63c | 43.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebf…fa2cbacked No | 73c | 42.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 41.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 49c | 39.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 28c | 38.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 61c | 38.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 32c | 38.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 70c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…3260backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.