Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d850d2470bd53e47f9b281f4b5cb95d3410c143279c0e19b2d5656f5128df51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,501$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.47 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 8c | 1,109$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 15c | 931.43$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.72 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 11c | 723.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 20c | 333.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed Yes | 12c | 331.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 324.14$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 24c | 299.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 18c | 256.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 18c | 255.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 205.57$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 16c | 200.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed Yes | 16c | 190.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 22c | 187.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed Yes | 12c | 167.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 17c | 165$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 31c | 160.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 156.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 13c | 131.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 129.87$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 126.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 79c | 126.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 15c | 112.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 10c | 109.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 102.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 101.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 20c | 97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 74c | 96.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…2f70backed Yes | 30c | 94.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 86.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa848…8a1fbacked Yes | 20c | 82.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 76.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ef…5c7dbacked Yes | 28c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 18c | 61.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 61.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 80c | 55.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 28c | 52.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa837…512fbacked Yes | 20c | 51.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 40c | 50.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 23c | 45.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 25c | 39.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 32.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed No | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 28.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 76c | 28.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 78c | 25.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 22.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 80c | 20.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 18.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 80c | 14.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.