TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,023 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7735…4740backed Yes66c4,837$3,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.0525933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No42c880.26$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.5776755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes52c778.64$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.75,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2876…752fbacked Yes54c709.01$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.01966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+45.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No36c637.62$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.112,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No45c434.66$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4541051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked No56c406.19$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.0418368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes64c378.54$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.6428142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No47c304.66$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.613,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No36c284.61$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4271823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed No75c281.36$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.8114744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8297…d600backed No79c269.76$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.4813448.5%65 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed No26c249.75$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.071,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No37c237.29$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5810757.9%62 W · 45 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No72c217$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.643,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No67c211.36$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.132,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes33c206.4$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.919,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No21c201.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.561,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes52c201.24$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.5620144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9049646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No73c190.5$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.152751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No37c169.06$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3467158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes30c166.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.372,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48a0…f156backed No40c162.9$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.79762.9%61 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No71c155$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.084,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c153.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked No74c149.17$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.932334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c147.04$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48f3…fd0abacked Yes77c130.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.41560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.092,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No45c116.91$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.597,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No31c116.42$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.671,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c114.25$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes27c113.65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.968234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c113.37$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e06…9754backed Yes37c105.25$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3313630.1%41 W · 95 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes31c105$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4529520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked No46c104.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.79058.9%53 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes44c103.72$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.91,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No58c103$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.95,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753815.8%6 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0515759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.317555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1815843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69ae…00c1backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid+20.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes32c95.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9349941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No62c87$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.692,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87a2…af52backed Yes59c86.22$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.352650%13 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No62c86.05$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4721268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…e671backed No57c84.85$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.971070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No60c84.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.51,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes64c82.95$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2318567.6%125 W · 60 L+28.7wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7eb1…9e38backed Yes42c80.54$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.421560%9 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No47c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.633,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes28c80$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.61,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7299…a763backed No69c77.6$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2523668.2%161 W · 75 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No62c76.46$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c76.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No56c76$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5650373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No63c72.62$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.911,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3602…98dfbacked Yes30c69.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.695437%20 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No73c68.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9730859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No34c65.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.944,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No29c64.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8151631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No59c61.43$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.944,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c59.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x900e…f6bfbacked No21c58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.267682.9%63 W · 13 L+27.3wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+108.5%equal weight80+0.27 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No46c57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0280050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked Yes76c54.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0219461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942d…278ebacked Yes33c54.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5143430.9%134 W · 300 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No39c51.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ad1…b4c5backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51030%3 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick61cpaid-58.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No26c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.11,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No66c48.52$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9298571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No53c47.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.351,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes40c45.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6930652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No50c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.542,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes46c44.39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8145238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe055…3157backed No56c44.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.876660.6%40 W · 26 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes48c41.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8624029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No59c41.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4299963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed Yes59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.361,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed Yes44c39.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.414119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No43c39.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1490734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No40c38.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6531050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes42c38.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.416227.4%17 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…9acbbacked Yes37c37.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.08540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes75c37.48$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3747136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No60c34.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1512758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No39c34.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.381,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9e1…7521backed Yes77c33.77$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.771546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x978d…f975backed No61c32.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick68cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No39c31.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2672952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd297…dcc7backed No66c30.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-63%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.73,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.