Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C or higher on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bae4131fbecce5acacb3fc0b8b391f84438e4cb82187243c0e83864673844a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 779.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 667.91$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 13c | 523.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 12c | 416.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 406.82$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 73c | 362.21$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.16 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 39c | 275.32$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 191.45$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 166.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 165.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 42c | 160.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 30c | 139.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 66c | 98.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 84.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 22c | 77.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 60.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 35c | 57.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 55.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…a676backed No | 74c | 53.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 51.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 46.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 39c | 43.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 42.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 32c | 32.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed No | 78c | 31.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 77c | 31.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…f975backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 68c | 23.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…6a39backed No | 67c | 21.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1998…6514backed Yes | 49c | 20.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 59c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 14.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C or higher on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.