TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,841
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,928

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,841 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7735…4740backed Yes45c938.63$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.925933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No61c844.93$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.3376755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes30c771.25$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.375,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c506$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.815,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No62c459.86$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.4795852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x69ae…00c1backed Yes25c425.07$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.271421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid+20.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No52c357.97$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.912,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8297…d600backed Yes78c343.59$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.3613448.5%65 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes34c342.73$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3228142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No61c238.76$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.5710757.9%62 W · 45 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes37c238.73$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5125362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No73c211.36$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.542,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No64c209.61$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.063,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7099…791bbacked No62c208.53$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.422356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No72c190.5$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.582751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c180$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.814,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48a0…f156backed No56c162.9$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.39762.9%61 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a2…af52backed No75c153.32$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.922650%13 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes46c152.05$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7554154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes19c141.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes28c138.85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48f3…fd0abacked Yes72c137.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.892,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes47c123.55$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.448234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes28c123.22$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.116840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…8834backed Yes61c113.68$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.291650%8 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ff…4fe2backed No72c104.88$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.372676.9%20 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes30c103.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.666227.4%17 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7749941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked No53c99.1$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.569058.9%53 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes68c90.2$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6115843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No79c89.36$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9599963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No42c85.14$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.351,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No52c83.72$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No58c80.1$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.393,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38cf…5d18backed No39c80.03$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+184.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes36c80$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes30c75.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2671823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No62c72.62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.671,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No77c71.79$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.331,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f8…8e32backed No71c68.57$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7717956.4%101 W · 78 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes26c67.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.473,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e06…9754backed Yes35c67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6513630.1%41 W · 95 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No47c66.66$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.087,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes32c65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5199949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes28c64.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9993837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bb…6bd8backed Yes39c64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.963060%18 W · 12 L+5.6wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+52.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes25c59.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6920144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No68c59.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8824466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbea5…1de3backed Yes22c57.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.614139%16 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-39.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8366926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes45c56.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2399962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No65c52.71$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7111459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x978d…f975backed Yes78c51.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick68cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No76c50.33$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.874,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad1…b4c5backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51030%3 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick61cpaid-58.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.492,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ed…a0b1backed Yes24c48.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed No61c46.56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1434633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes31c45.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.213,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed Yes59c44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9614744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes39c41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.924360.5%26 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No58c40.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.932,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2529520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.214119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c39.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.591,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes30c39.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6344536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11d0…69c9backed Yes31c38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes33c37.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.555,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No41c36.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.691,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed Yes32c35.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4313035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed Yes45c33.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.91,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes33c30.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.131,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec4…ce94backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.23256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.94,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes46c26.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.356854.4%37 W · 31 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No75c26.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.582,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No74c26.07$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.92,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed Yes40c26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3167158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked Yes74c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.519461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfddd…cab9backed No75c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.33268.8%22 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick75cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb903…a41bbacked Yes42c23.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0310410.6%11 W · 93 L-42.2wins-0.41per pick51cpaid-85.3%equal weight14-0.33 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes57c23.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95fa…ff8cbacked No75c21.33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No60c20.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1350261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x029a…60fcbacked No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.72055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8752…31b6backed Yes63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.67440.5%30 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25a…31c4backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No66c19.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.782562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No78c19.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2337942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No65c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.612758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe7d…fd73backed No64c15.52$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.526648.5%32 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-18.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9538655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7555855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x139e…a5debacked No79c14.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.9124951.4%128 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f1…c062backed No72c13.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9212057.5%69 W · 51 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.