TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,444 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2cb6…2ff6backed No1c3,339$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.699943.4%43 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes45c648.72$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.634,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes33c601.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.781,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes73c574.22$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.956,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed No17c444.66$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6114926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No30c423.84$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.822,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed No70c385.77$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.329333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c297.23$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.1617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes75c280.31$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.751,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes25c265.23$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.581,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No25c252.73$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.988,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes70c241.53$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7221641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes30c240.66$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.39626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No70c232.21$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.361,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes30c204.95$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8219426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd01…c83dbacked No20c197.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.260%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No11c190.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0433620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa178…2112backed Yes46c172.18$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4610184.2%85 W · 16 L+26.9wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+70.6%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0x7e76…caf0backed Yes74c157$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb7…ee95backed No17c147.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.01110%0 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4f0…22e0backed No22c136.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.067021.4%15 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf845…7c31backed No22c125.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.198957.3%51 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c104.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.737,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes36c102.11$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0211126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe509…7387backed Yes21c101.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.62722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8036123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes41c97.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7749547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No75c95.86$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6431868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x967e…2fb6backed Yes30c95.85$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.314332.9%47 W · 96 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No77c94.55$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.751,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x859c…38e4backed No13c80.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.262114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes27c76.35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4731029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No59c75.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.951,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes34c75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.51,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes16c72.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.471,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf1a…1a3cbacked Yes27c72.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+264.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes25c72.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.512,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes38c72.09$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0243238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes34c68.21$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.762,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No68c66.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7419259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No72c65.34$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.053,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7c…f555backed Yes34c61.83$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.84526.7%12 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No78c60.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4451762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No45c60.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.334,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes30c59.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.981,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes25c57.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0159021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes27c57.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0285330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes35c56.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0429640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No77c54.72$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.132,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a2…af52backed No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.52650%13 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes37c48.43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5125037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca2…835cbacked No66c48.07$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.731136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x142a…a44abacked Yes75c46.9$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6217945.3%81 W · 98 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes42c44.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6255942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes25c44.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.111,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No69c43.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9970770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes39c42.26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.781,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No48c41.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.911,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9c…1450backed No79c40.05$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5414251.4%73 W · 69 L-21.9wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-29.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked No62c39.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4644147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0057…b1c7backed Yes27c38.77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1314826.4%39 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes27c37.95$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.571,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfb…f641backed No70c34.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.449164.8%59 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes31c33.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2159125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes32c33.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8642438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a3…fc4abacked No71c31.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4213059.2%77 W · 53 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No63c30.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2634057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No75c30.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6318452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No66c29.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6120353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No70c29.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3754966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c4…b153backed No63c29.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.374864.6%31 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No63c28.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0456265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a56…7f15backed No49c28.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No72c27.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5333450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed No71c26.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9710562.9%66 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcafd…b861backed No73c26.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.257272.2%52 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c25.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No79c24.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5823349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec21…c83fbacked No80c24.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.597166.2%47 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-15.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c24.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No64c24.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2627756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c23.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.082,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No73c23.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.011,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes72c21.39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8937644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ce…7f30backed No67c19.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3916065.6%105 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No70c19.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9576371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No76c19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.441,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No69c16.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6357038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad74…e535backed No70c16.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4e3…8668backed No70c15.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dfe…f1d8backed No71c14.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-3.0wins-0.42per pick71cpaid-61%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes73c14.66$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9899962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed No76c13.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1029653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.