Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x748ec749f228da7d996b907f2fc01609012e692330f050c6d5985b69b00a5967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 890.74$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 12c | 740.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 550.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd01…c83dbacked Yes | 29c | 516.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 27c | 436.28$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 394.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 16c | 382.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 343.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 9c | 248.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 15c | 215.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 203.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked No | 68c | 195.41$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed Yes | 9c | 186.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 170.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 164.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 68c | 161.9$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 154.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0343…cb9fbacked Yes | 12c | 153.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 26c | 146.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 12c | 115.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 14c | 102.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 16c | 91.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 21c | 86.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 17c | 83.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 20c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 16c | 66.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 66c | 57.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 80c | 49.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 68c | 35.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 33.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 80c | 24.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 80c | 22.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 77c | 19.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.