Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fb736dfc4b2c153dd42f45108f7a3f417dfca9e41dc28cc3720aefcbddc08b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c04…a98fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,084$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 44c | 260.79$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.02 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 213.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 54c | 209.86$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.69 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 45c | 199.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 50c | 199.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.66 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 52c | 152.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 144.63$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 141.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 130.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 59c | 128.57$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 52c | 118.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 36c | 118.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 118.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 115.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 49c | 113.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 48c | 98.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 48c | 94.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 50c | 91.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 71c | 91.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 37c | 88.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 39c | 86.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 67c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 45c | 79.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 65c | 62.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 61.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 60.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 53c | 53.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 53c | 53.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 42c | 49.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22b…3d0fbacked Yes | 36c | 48.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 49c | 48.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 40c | 46.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 45.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 52c | 44.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 43c | 42.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 42.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…fbdebacked Yes | 34c | 41.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 38.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 37.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 62c | 35.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 35.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 38c | 35.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 33.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 33c | 32.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 62c | 32.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed No | 54c | 30.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…4bb2backed Yes | 35c | 29.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 55c | 26.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 59c | 26.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 46c | 26.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked No | 59c | 25.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 49c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 62c | 20.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed No | 69c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 74c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.