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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 4?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,890
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,430

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,890 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x913a…a3e7backed Yes3c542.53$17 inLost-$17.383767.6%25 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+32.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes20c284.03$56 inLost-$55.891,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c263.92$46 inLost-$45.927,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c258.07$46 inLost-$45.7117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes14c213.76$30 inLost-$30.358,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes18c199.58$36 inLost-$35.5219426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed Yes13c147.69$19 inLost-$18.8620353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes12c113.41$14 inLost-$13.742419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No79c110.25$87 inWon+$23.442,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes14c90$12 inLost-$12.31679%15 W · 152 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes16c84.58$14 inLost-$13.9323022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes18c80.43$15 inLost-$14.6131029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes13c80.33$10 inLost-$10.2123738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed Yes14c80.12$12 inLost-$11.579333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes17c78.71$14 inLost-$13.6843525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05a0…636abacked Yes16c70.29$12 inLost-$11.592850%14 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a8e…0c17backed No80c60.76$49 inWon+$12.15475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick78cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fde…cc92backed No78c28.13$22 inWon+$6.192369.6%16 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No77c23$18 inWon+$5.1923349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No80c18.69$15 inWon+$3.7435369.4%245 W · 108 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick68cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4639…78b8backed No79c16.31$13 inWon+$3.422944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4c3…4613backed No79c14.79$12 inWon+$3.047777.9%60 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No79c14.13$11 inWon+$2.9740777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.