AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f21c35963d7699b8276bff7fc5172e9c39d7380fb5bfd9ec7165781a1e47d57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 14c | 1,216$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.1 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 11c | 773.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…d5a4backed No | 9c | 695.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 14c | 630.95$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…d93bbacked No | 12c | 500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d5…56dcbacked Yes | 77c | 486.25$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 11c | 398.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4733…8738backed No | 10c | 358.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 66c | 346.26$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.73 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 12c | 337.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 11c | 324.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…c25dbacked No | 14c | 324$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 291.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 16c | 279$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 14c | 245$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…c6e8backed No | 14c | 232.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 226$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 12c | 220.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 11c | 175.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 172$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 15c | 125.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 63c | 123.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…5387backed No | 16c | 122.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 78c | 120.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…ddbcbacked No | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 11c | 119.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 17c | 116.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked No | 16c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 17c | 108.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 95.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 94.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0399…dff7backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ff…89d6backed No | 18c | 76.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 23c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…510dbacked No | 21c | 65.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 59.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed No | 21c | 54.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…1afcbacked Yes | 77c | 42.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 75c | 41.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed Yes | 80c | 25.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…f103backed Yes | 80c | 22.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…b2a9backed Yes | 78c | 20.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 67c | 17.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 80c | 16.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?this page
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.