AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51bf0196b77c07901949d262d1c3bf4429a16a2feb6b82dca8473814f8dc96d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,493$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 3c | 1,686$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 4c | 1,673$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 7c | 1,572$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,199$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cde…930abacked Yes | 8c | 950.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…5907backed Yes | 12c | 936.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 6c | 912.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 4c | 747.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 5c | 605.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 585.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa2…3801backed Yes | 9c | 553.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 7c | 549.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 8c | 464.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 4c | 450.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…ca07backed Yes | 5c | 418.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…ef3cbacked Yes | 4c | 391.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 9c | 344.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4733…8738backed Yes | 6c | 333.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 5c | 320.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda9c…ffb3backed Yes | 6c | 264.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…2e53backed Yes | 20c | 254.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…0716backed Yes | 17c | 200.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…b58abacked Yes | 19c | 199$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 9c | 194.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 13c | 165.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed Yes | 7c | 149.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…13f7backed Yes | 16c | 129.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed Yes | 13c | 120.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…c25dbacked Yes | 9c | 111.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…40c5backed Yes | 15c | 94.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…3c13backed Yes | 15c | 79.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b52…49b2backed Yes | 16c | 73.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
- Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.