Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x864c6060d0e86015f8b89ffcaf42ebe49c390ed6c31170b7ab351c31b467be82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 303.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 5c | 237.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 233.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed No | 70c | 231.12$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 222.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 5c | 201.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 45c | 149.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed No | 60c | 132.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked Yes | 18c | 113.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 13c | 111.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 10c | 104.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 59c | 104.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 101.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 63c | 99.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 12c | 86.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…67bfbacked No | 50c | 75.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked No | 78c | 73.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 68.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 34c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 66.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed No | 77c | 64.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 35c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 23c | 61.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 61.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 31c | 60.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 70c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 69c | 46.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 46c | 44.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 79c | 44.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 30c | 41.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 34c | 39.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…5dd1backed No | 56c | 36.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 57c | 33.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed No | 58c | 32.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 42c | 30.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98f…d282backed No | 77c | 21.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 20.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 90°F or higher on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.