Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5840b06b7adbd18ebc47a45bb802f81f8415d57854214bf9988a25de95cc8145
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 79c | 609.29$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.67 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 600.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 11c | 404.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.07 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 340.73$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 20c | 275.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.73 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 20c | 264.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.08 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 6c | 255.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 9c | 242.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.76 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 35c | 216$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 10c | 211.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 204.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.11 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 70c | 186$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 171.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 76c | 169.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.73 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 163.37$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…c535backed Yes | 8c | 163.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +208.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 142.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 48c | 138$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 30c | 135.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 10c | 134.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 53c | 133.74$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.25 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 121.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 21c | 113.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 70c | 113.06$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 13c | 111.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 108.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked Yes | 20c | 90.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 12c | 85.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 34c | 84.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 14c | 78.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 39c | 76.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 34c | 62.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 61.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f60…a419backed Yes | 41c | 60.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 79c | 53.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 26c | 50.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 74c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…0927backed Yes | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 62c | 33.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 61c | 30.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 50c | 30.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 23.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 66c | 22.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 70c | 21.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 66c | 20.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…fae8backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d7…7c87backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…3f4bbacked Yes | 68c | 19.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…aa2fbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 67c | 15.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 15.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 90°F or higher on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.