Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc82d68a92dfe768b236f4894f9db8de3cf79fdcd746a38e0dc627ad56dae19e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 23c | 1,308$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.17 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 603.64$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 33c | 378.49$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.34 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed No | 72c | 372.07$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.65 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 367.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 285.78$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 26c | 270.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.47 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 20c | 220.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.48 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 7c | 173.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 140.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 139.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.61 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 38c | 134.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 19c | 130$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 125$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 120.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 20c | 119.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 73c | 101.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 25c | 97.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 91.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 78.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 53c | 78.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 74.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 67.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 41c | 65.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 25c | 64.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 64.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed Yes | 24c | 60.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 79c | 60.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 55.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 38c | 53.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 74c | 48.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 33c | 45.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 69c | 43.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…adbcbacked No | 54c | 42.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 76c | 40.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 41c | 40.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 79c | 38.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 56c | 37.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 69c | 37.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 28c | 35.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 78c | 30.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 67c | 30.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 59c | 29.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 59c | 27.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 56c | 26.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 21.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 17.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 68c | 16.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…aa50backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 67cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 77c | 13.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…1decbacked No | 79c | 13.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…2c8ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.