TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,906 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd36…a832backed Yes52c1,122$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.1465043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Yes76c1,045$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7903943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes12c356.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.075,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes45c334.31$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.2525933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes40c234.51$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes41c227.27$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.228142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No45c219.8$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.944,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes56c212.56$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12024029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d4c…830abacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10614.9%3 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes45c181.62$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.926227.4%17 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No49c162.85$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1599963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No40c155.43$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.9212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No43c147$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.156424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No41c146$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1419052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No41c143.7$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No43c140.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.835,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed No59c139.29$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.613959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.98$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.892,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No45c119$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.484,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes50c118.92$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.91,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes55c118.54$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1245238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No37c112.46$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.753,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No50c110.92$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.977,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes59c101.87$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.114752.4%77 W · 70 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2815843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87a2…af52backed Yes58c92.82$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.132650%13 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1342…c430backed No48c88.85$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.23441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes22c88.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No60c83.89$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.261,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No47c83.05$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.842,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No58c82.85$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.712,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes39c77.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.21,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbca…cb90backed Yes42c69.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.16850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No52c67.61$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4550373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No56c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.41,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No55c59.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2778663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No32c58.15$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2995852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No52c57.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4834151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9838…8469backed Yes37c54.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205756.1%32 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes56c53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.521,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed No45c50.53$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6114744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa75f…433abacked Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74cd…0304backed No39c48.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.981050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No50c46.9$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.652,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3209…0508backed Yes45c45.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.744134.1%14 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+39.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c44.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.552,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes51c43.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1930652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe055…3157backed No57c43.63$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.766660.6%40 W · 26 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No62c42.16$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.842,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f33…1ab8backed No36c41.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.672755.6%15 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+48.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked No47c40.59$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3924736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd0…f4cabacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes65c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2628946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No56c39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.163,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8297…d600backed Yes57c38.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7813448.5%65 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed No44c37.45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.81,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7780050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No37c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.021,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No48c34.01$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.545,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a4…d98cbacked Yes57c34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.511163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No60c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7247569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No46c32.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7612758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No52c32.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5551631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0520…ae9bbacked No42c32.36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.696660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No60c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.81,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No49c30.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6137942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No49c30.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.612,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ec4…ce94backed No41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.73256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.919037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1ba2backed No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.62040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.71,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes54c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.257335.6%26 W · 47 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes55c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.493,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d0…69c9backed Yes54c29.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0610551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No50c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4543859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x139e…a5debacked No53c28.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0824951.4%128 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73dd…1f06backed Yes55c28.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.439639.6%38 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No39c26.79$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3641051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bbf…002fbacked No50c25.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9510953.2%58 W · 51 L+19.9wins+0.18per pick35cpaid+424.1%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No62c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.451,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0327769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes51c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.852533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9325868.2%176 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb040…ef71backed No56c24.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8511362.8%71 W · 42 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes60c22.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4312233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No57c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4639158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25e9…adbcbacked Yes71c21.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.272263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7d…fd73backed No49c20.42$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.426648.5%32 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-18.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf43…66f5backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1010234.3%35 W · 67 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes69c17.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2235742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No63c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.