Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3376f1691f135343087cde3bf9ef9f9f7b11d4731b94a7fd3c214e80e7424ab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,356$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.78 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 27c | 1,181$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.4 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 831.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed Yes | 12c | 706.3$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 686.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 487.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…7aecbacked Yes | 3c | 432.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 10c | 317.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 54c | 308.98$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.38 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 72c | 240.58$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 203.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 16c | 201.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 188$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…62afbacked Yes | 16c | 155.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 16c | 147.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 138.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 10c | 137.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 24c | 135.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 22c | 135$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 16c | 123.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 27c | 118.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 26c | 114.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 27c | 108.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 108$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 35c | 96.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 92.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 26c | 90.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 72c | 87.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…f527backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 36c | 83.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 79c | 73.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 60.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 62c | 60.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 43c | 52.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 31c | 48.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 22c | 48.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked Yes | 25c | 48.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 74c | 47.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…8344backed No | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 39c | 43.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 61c | 43.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 42.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 38.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 61c | 36.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 69c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 23.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 71c | 18.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 63c | 16.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 79c | 15.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.