Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44fbdcdf1ea44aa44b7260a3829205c08238c20de9faacb40ba5d17045689d19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 433.16$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…05c3backed Yes | 28c | 379.17$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.64 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 39c | 284.74$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…3122backed Yes | 39c | 282.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 226.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…5749backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…00c1backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 32c | 186.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 32c | 157.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 142.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…af52backed Yes | 27c | 133.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 29c | 104.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 101.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 15c | 89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 73c | 76.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…60fcbacked No | 78c | 72.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 66.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed Yes | 31c | 64.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 62c | 53.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 21c | 53.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked Yes | 39c | 51.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 24c | 50.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 42.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ea…026dbacked Yes | 41c | 39.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 68c | 38.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 74c | 36.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 31.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe7…33d8backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…cb90backed Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 74c | 25.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 65c | 24.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 58c | 23.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 68c | 23.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 79c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab3…c4a1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.