TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,162
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,162 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7735…4740backed Yes47c1,084$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.0525933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No9c719.27$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3535323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed No2c546.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8170%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No9c534.15$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8482562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes59c500.79$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.5814752.4%77 W · 70 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes65c416.85$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8524029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked No49c320$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.412231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes51c279.03$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.165043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c253.47$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.9117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No66c208.61$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.952,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No38c206.89$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.113,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb541…169dbacked Yes54c202.12$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.664365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No29c196.15$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.942,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No32c194$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.485,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c190$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.954,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No16c181.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d97…05c3backed Yes63c158.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.991776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick60cpaid+32.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked No21c144.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6224736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes49c140.43$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.925,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No65c134.98$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.52,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No43c132.92$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.764,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No10c124.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.827,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes65c124.03$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.034463.6%28 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes47c108.52$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7445238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes37c104.85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5628142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6540…8344backed Yes59c101.9$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed No54c99.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9124539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes35c85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.251,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No25c84.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x64f8…eec6backed Yes78c83.7$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.042373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes37c80.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.214040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No19c79.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.021,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes59c78.78$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.481,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd425…bf47backed No64c78.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505068%34 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes36c76.87$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.99,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa70d…63bebacked No53c74.3$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.088940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc69a…4d6bbacked No41c72.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6116863.1%106 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No25c68.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3139158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.553,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa907…ba96backed Yes79c63.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.110955%60 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No51c63.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1359440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec4…ce94backed No23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.623256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes49c55.67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6519037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes45c55.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5266926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No40c55.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0244659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.039,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.51,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3144646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No61c49.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes40c48.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.314,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0479…8cbbbacked Yes34c48.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.233839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No50c48.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c44.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.495,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes57c43.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5961659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No43c43.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5143859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42e…59e1backed Yes77c43$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No59c40.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.181,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No58c40.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.667,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2028946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c39.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.42,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Yes38c39.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4116627.7%46 W · 120 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed No64c39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1442643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No53c38.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7212758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No49c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7439159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No66c37.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.081,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed Yes54c37.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.071216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-67.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3602…98dfbacked Yes32c37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.135437%20 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes49c34.45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.455,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c32.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No48c31.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2161752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Yes53c31.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.691127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.29per pick56cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3817555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.93,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe7…33d8backed Yes36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8580050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes36c29.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1677…d9adbacked No53c28.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No46c27.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.871,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6036…cc41backed Yes36c27.78$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.789333.3%31 W · 62 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes44c27.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2330652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No57c27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3499571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a02…b863backed Yes49c26.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.531080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No58c26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1825868.2%176 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No62c24.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.551,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No42c24.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4552155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No54c24.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0739157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7a…73c0backed No54c24.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132763%17 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd54…5749backed Yes63c23.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.812934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No58c23.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7450373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No65c23.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.282,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed No62c22.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2513765.7%90 W · 47 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58d6…49b0backed Yes64c22.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.081172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x278a…dfddbacked No50c20.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.412050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbda3…0b82backed Yes74c20.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.31353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2c0…a2d1backed No54c18.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.