TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,458,338
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,898,272

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,458,338 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0380…073dbacked No11c107,768$12,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,037.967032.9%23 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…19b8backed Yes39c83,600$32,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,991.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc28d…15fbbacked Yes38c75,500$28,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,734.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+94.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09c0…6f73backed Yes53c65,675$34,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,113.413100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4850…d8bbbacked Yes31c64,900$20,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,845.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+223.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No10c44,249$4,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,372.58634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No11c33,862$3,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,579.168547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf847…f0a2backed No69c31,400$21,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,697.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…98c8backed No69c30,900$21,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,351.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x369c…eab1backed Yes75c30,386$22,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,690.372450%12 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c6…2d9ebacked No61c28,700$17,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,449.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5600backed No61c27,800$16,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,902.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad0…6221backed No61c27,100$16,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,639.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7098…b948backed No45c26,018$11,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,707.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No18c25,740$4,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,544.887943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda6b…8fc7backed No62c25,700$15,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,908.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88bf…acffbacked No62c25,200$15,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,598.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b11…8838backed No62c24,600$15,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,227.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes70c21,389$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,388.83647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No23c21,374$4,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,881.789839.8%39 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes79c17,865$14,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,760.25540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No28c17,388$4,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,869.312429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes50c16,321$8,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,211.893043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb47a…6d60backed No55c15,555$8,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,555.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd49a…6f4cbacked Yes74c14,779$10,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,905.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No19c13,361$2,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,510.352729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-55.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No24c12,727$3,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,048.474012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-52.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c4e…297bbacked No24c12,698$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,050.353145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No9c10,413$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.1119432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb522…3ebbbacked Yes78c10,246$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.225100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37d1…6caabacked Yes80c8,717$6,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,766.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked No20c8,339$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.637020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked Yes73c8,000$5,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.061421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick46cpaid-70.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked No4c7,841$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.982114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-78.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No19c7,691$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.46839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No23c7,216$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,669.9111720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No18c6,948$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.5813422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No6c6,947$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.121388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23b9…0b21backed Yes70c6,736$4,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed Yes75c6,667$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.98475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c6,598$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.091491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No16c6,399$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.438942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes52c6,199$3,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,964.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No11c6,166$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.284835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5441…7c4ebacked Yes74c6,104$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.161163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes72c6,003$4,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.84450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No18c5,900$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.348923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…50c8backed Yes69c5,765$3,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.711258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+45.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No15c5,724$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.871040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+157.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1653…0348backed Yes75c5,578$4,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed Yes79c5,520$4,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.56875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf58c…d588backed No12c5,181$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.81140%0 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa85…4d17backed No25c5,004$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.951915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b67…b814backed No4c5,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1903724.3%9 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No11c5,000$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.9811425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca4f…ddc4backed Yes79c4,916$3,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No15c4,904$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.848741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No13c4,855$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6383834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No25c4,787$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.356931.9%22 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes21c4,696$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,733.178038.8%31 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No5c4,652$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.643042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57f7…e87bbacked Yes65c4,616$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44bb…c186backed No29c4,523$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.6760%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c40…445cbacked Yes32c4,362$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,955.313026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c4,308$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.86291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No22c4,146$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.434126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fef…ee82backed Yes72c4,000$2,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.11933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No11c3,974$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.461723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0325…16e7backed No10c3,944$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dc2…0933backed Yes60c3,863$2,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.81947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc5…e3b9backed Yes67c3,735$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.463100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes76c3,590$2,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.961735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No15c3,533$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.027041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36b8…7e74backed Yes72c3,482$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed No24c3,417$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.9340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb32…bbccbacked Yes60c3,357$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.431216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-71.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c55…4120backed No17c3,000$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No21c2,956$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.58474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes72c2,800$2,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.198543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a9…c455backed Yes72c2,787$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.621020%2 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-69.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x95fc…379cbacked Yes73c2,747$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…8e0ebacked Yes55c2,744$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.82650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8440…57fabacked No4c2,616$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked No1c2,602$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+75.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes10c2,601$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.736923.2%16 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x258f…f004backed No69c2,600$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No17c2,568$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.172536%9 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No6c2,567$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.447132.4%23 W · 48 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+49.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b37…6962backed Yes15c2,537$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,167.133426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b25…d739backed Yes79c2,537$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes67c2,520$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.384259.5%25 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6476…eebabacked Yes80c2,500$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No2c2,493$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.58590%0 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bc8…3627backed Yes61c2,390$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.792343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+90.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No15c2,356$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.7940712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x59be…5d9fbacked Yes56c2,347$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.774100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No14c2,326$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.926448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No31c2,314$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.94318.6%8 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes68c2,312$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.232934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ee…7d14backed Yes66c2,288$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.