AI · resolved market
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9812b1740a7dc0ec0318f66577bd40305576ad43cfcd732399dc02a328035ef2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,143,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $571,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,143,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x444d…58bfbacked Yes | 0c | 951,579$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96de…3983backed Yes | 0c | 947,235$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5862…792abacked Yes | 0c | 455,678$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…46f8backed Yes | 0c | 416,685$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…866fbacked Yes | 0c | 353,967$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c50…b4c7backed Yes | 0c | 346,669$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15eb…980dbacked Yes | 0c | 294,444$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…3115backed Yes | 0c | 224,263$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.66 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 97,578$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.57 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 50,052$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d00…4e04backed Yes | 0c | 44,586$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 0c | 39,624$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 37,499$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab3…b750backed Yes | 0c | 35,845$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 32,284$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 30,967$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1909…d5e6backed Yes | 0c | 29,600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0369…3272backed Yes | 0c | 29,600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e5…a45abacked Yes | 0c | 29,600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8037…e211backed Yes | 0c | 29,600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6a…0eadbacked Yes | 0c | 26,330$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed Yes | 0c | 13,100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68e2…30acbacked Yes | 0c | 12,706$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 11,908$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 0c | 11,535$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 11,110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…038ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,038$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 5,908$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab1d…96adbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 4,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…3c6abacked Yes | 1c | 4,098$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,746$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,231$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…c6aabacked Yes | 1c | 2,099$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,983$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6493…a2e0backed Yes | 1c | 1,934$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed Yes | 3c | 1,800$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…ef9abacked Yes | 1c | 1,763$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…ac56backed Yes | 1c | 1,727$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ba…0112backed Yes | 1c | 1,716$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…cf77backed Yes | 1c | 1,530$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df8…321ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,530$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…ca91backed Yes | 1c | 1,525$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a3…5655backed Yes | 1c | 1,487$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e2…e648backed Yes | 1c | 1,268$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…0cc9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…163ebacked Yes | 50c | 633$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb70…a359backed No | 50c | 633$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…9c4abacked Yes | 50c | 553$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…2158backed No | 50c | 553$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 535.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 2c | 532.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…46c8backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.