TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,217,239
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$631,756

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,217,239 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c132,068$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.542920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb254…3115backed Yes0c106,797$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c70,889$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.741491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c58,181$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9914421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c52,032$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.66291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c30,999$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x517b…fe53backed Yes0c30,978$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.63120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c29,998$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a85…3c54backed Yes0c27,583$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.72140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes1c22,121$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.466010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes1c16,341$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.49796.3%5 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes1c13,813$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.862611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-34.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe49d…3b8fbacked Yes0c12,053$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c11,085$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.92280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb6…5875backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5254…9722backed Yes2c9,968$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170156.7%1 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6602…089fbacked Yes0c8,614$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.25250%0 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e8…deb6backed Yes1c8,289$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc46…899abacked Yes1c7,345$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8970%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x621f…c4dfbacked Yes1c6,304$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.26250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick1cpaid+6,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3f2…51d9backed Yes1c6,291$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes1c6,281$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.81280%0 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2b6…3331backed Yes1c6,178$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.65728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-58.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes1c5,872$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.15210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5b8…1f98backed Yes2c5,609$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes1c5,513$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed Yes0c5,070$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.442218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-67.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4bf…43f6backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb32…bbccbacked Yes2c4,798$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-71.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes1c4,657$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.622817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+135.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes1c3,929$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.586216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…c8d3backed Yes1c3,765$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes1c3,573$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6319337.3%72 W · 121 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c3,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab1d…96adbacked Yes0c3,342$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes1c3,294$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.672814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+57.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes2c3,254$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.876627.3%18 W · 48 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes1c3,125$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.044318.6%8 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c3,039$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.273042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c3,030$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.42522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes3c2,979$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.364012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-52.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7372…ad6dbacked Yes1c2,894$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c2,702$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.492792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…e4efbacked Yes2c2,632$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-43.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61d3…65d6backed Yes2c2,489$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0753…c6aabacked Yes1c2,415$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.88147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-64.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3d8…fcbfbacked Yes5c2,345$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde89…1871backed Yes2c2,334$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93da…2a34backed Yes1c2,282$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c40…445cbacked Yes5c2,277$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a21…dc26backed Yes2c2,266$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c2,200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.55700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc83…bcd2backed Yes1c2,198$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.582254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4364…5e5abacked Yes1c2,168$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d16…0519backed Yes1c2,151$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb17f…3cf3backed Yes2c2,078$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c42…05babacked Yes3c2,044$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-75.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1df…1d2fbacked Yes3c1,898$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick27cpaid+116.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…3d2cbacked Yes2c1,807$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b37…6962backed Yes2c1,646$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.393426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828f…915bbacked Yes7c1,637$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,621$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.951,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c1,613$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72420%0 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c4…0444backed Yes3c1,605$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes3c1,508$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.744216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03b3…9aafbacked Yes1c1,505$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2270%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c77…05f5backed Yes7c1,500$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.570%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb53…edd1backed Yes2c1,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid+37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x437b…c7c1backed Yes2c1,498$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabd1…870ebacked Yes3c1,400$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8785…99f9backed Yes3c1,393$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60eb…7a4abacked Yes2c1,373$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa824…f7d9backed Yes2c1,305$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071f…7316backed Yes5c1,277$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc1…4f07backed Yes5c1,251$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85e9…2951backed Yes3c1,234$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481a…8ee4backed Yes1c1,203$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…85c6backed Yes5c1,186$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd108…958abacked Yes3c1,123$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes7c1,115$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.012913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x470c…2af9backed Yes2c1,105$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-80.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes3c1,083$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.643043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1613…391cbacked Yes3c1,052$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x141f…6705backed Yes4c1,042$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd960…ed40backed Yes1c1,040$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.66616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c1,034$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.452977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd8d…f3f4backed Yes3c1,031$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd8…af91backed Yes1c999$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ccb…c902backed Yes1c995$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8743…4e2ebacked Yes1c990$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19cf…c635backed Yes3c968$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a56…1893backed Yes4c967$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c962.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.152560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb90…9cb0backed Yes2c960$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d3…d8bcbacked Yes2c960$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0a…526ebacked Yes3c953$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x54ee…9c50backed Yes3c950$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c34…dc9bbacked Yes1c950$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5925…6cc4backed Yes2c944.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b9…5c33backed Yes2c943$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.