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AI · resolved market

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,149,136
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,450,443

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,149,136 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 441 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c110,076$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.162920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c75,615$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.89839.8%39 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c69,516$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.21501.3%2 W · 148 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa43…76a5backed Yes0c59,258$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes0c57,459$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.36120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c56,570$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.876311.3%8 W · 623 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7992…48bfbacked Yes0c34,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…63a3backed Yes1c32,520$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c32,287$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.77831.2%1 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-82.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda01…1bcabacked Yes4c24,170$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb82e…5278backed Yes0c20,699$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2280%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44bb…c186backed Yes4c17,132$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.8160%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed Yes0c14,399$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.672218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-67.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb254…3115backed Yes0c12,246$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.74110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9084…d70fbacked Yes1c12,094$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c12,054$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.71280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f23…7d19backed Yes0c11,733$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes0c11,664$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7614337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x385b…10fbbacked Yes0c10,576$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ef…90e2backed Yes1c10,389$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15580%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cdb…1cf4backed Yes3c9,640$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes3c9,503$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.066216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes3c9,393$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.212814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+57.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de8…fc01backed Yes2c9,323$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a85…3c54backed Yes0c8,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d7…14a9backed Yes1c7,153$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ab…84f7backed Yes7c7,001$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad27…32fdbacked Yes1c6,629$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c6,627$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.173042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c6,070$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.511,3716.8%93 W · 1,278 L-21.0wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c6,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c63…185cbacked Yes0c5,760$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9737…36d6backed Yes1c5,746$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed9b…ba1cbacked Yes6c5,704$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2552…73d2backed Yes2c5,572$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.161910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-63.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5c…626bbacked Yes1c5,470$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes1c5,327$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.66796.3%5 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc29…f1bbbacked Yes1c5,287$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes0c5,070$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12190%0 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…24e2backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4499…ebdebacked Yes4c4,907$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c45…d510backed Yes7c4,766$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c4,573$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.482590%0 W · 259 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes1c4,554$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.55210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4bf…43f6backed Yes0c4,525$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes0c4,510$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…309cbacked Yes1c4,424$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.354427.3%12 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45ea…026dbacked Yes1c4,316$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f62…c54dbacked Yes8c4,262$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes0c4,219$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.38700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed Yes5c4,197$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa89c…7b9bbacked Yes8c4,128$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x517b…fe53backed Yes1c4,030$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.41120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x327e…adb3backed Yes3c3,892$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9073…d837backed Yes6c3,796$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d0…e451backed Yes6c3,748$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5442…0fcdbacked Yes10c3,702$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4db4…29e8backed Yes6c3,615$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e07…bf5ebacked Yes6c3,440$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…b5d1backed Yes1c3,422$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e88…df66backed Yes3c3,360$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c3,342$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.95790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc774…a2dfbacked Yes2c3,289$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes1c3,141$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.882817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+135.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c3,141$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…7fe7backed Yes5c3,093$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes12c3,021$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.916923.2%16 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes3c3,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.084721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…c577backed Yes5c2,924$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes6c2,830$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.926627.3%18 W · 48 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f48…3154backed Yes2c2,800$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.970%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…b2b8backed Yes0c2,789$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4903…0242backed Yes8c2,772$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca90…813abacked Yes5c2,763$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-44.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5e…5bd4backed Yes3c2,699$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7950%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2583…2162backed Yes4c2,676$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c2,652$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0814621.2%31 W · 115 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd951…d039backed Yes6c2,640$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c2,598$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.382792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0be4…b548backed Yes2c2,500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa7…1c8ebacked Yes5c2,493$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4640…57d4backed Yes6c2,485$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8d…01d7backed Yes6c2,457$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5849…a99ebacked Yes1c2,426$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked Yes1c2,408$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.74330%0 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes2c2,406$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.45420%0 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6f…0e5fbacked Yes1c2,401$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b7…be60backed Yes2c2,378$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.75933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd99…c21ebacked Yes3c2,342$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98e…6833backed Yes5c2,321$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c0a…a2c5backed Yes6c2,280$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes2c2,252$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bee…35d9backed Yes6c2,247$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3871…669abacked Yes9c2,246$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1718…8ceebacked Yes2c2,233$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f36…4afebacked Yes3c2,221$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f0f…cf1abacked Yes6c2,169$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4015…07fdbacked Yes6c2,149$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.