AI · resolved market
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89102f28df8a119d84259cfdd0f2f7f9a758cfdf749554e153c6bf154afbe717
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,538,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $594,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,538,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 183,994$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.99 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…3115backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 67,831$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.45 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f1…290bbacked Yes | 0c | 65,350$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85fa…4e16backed Yes | 0c | 43,710$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34e7…381fbacked Yes | 0c | 43,620$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e8…b2e6backed Yes | 0c | 43,610$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…1fa1backed Yes | 0c | 43,530$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…5411backed Yes | 0c | 43,240$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…aa4abacked Yes | 0c | 43,230$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…39edbacked Yes | 0c | 42,940$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fe…2545backed Yes | 0c | 42,680$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0f…dfc5backed Yes | 0c | 41,700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7186…2556backed Yes | 0c | 39,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 33,942$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9d…5cd6backed Yes | 0c | 19,995$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 0c | 16,385$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 0c | 15,185$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 14,098$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8c…019ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7d3bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 9,835$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 7,300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 1c | 6,002$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03b3…9aafbacked Yes | 1c | 5,939$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 5,901$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.15 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6602…089fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…0eb3backed Yes | 2c | 2,904$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…90bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,344$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,037$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…2a82backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,793$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe36…92adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49df…6b03backed Yes | 2c | 1,580$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…fa63backed Yes | 2c | 1,499$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,447$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…3297backed Yes | 2c | 1,425$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…967abacked Yes | 2c | 1,365$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb35…1fa2backed Yes | 2c | 1,176$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…9773backed Yes | 2c | 1,169$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 1,130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…bc21backed Yes | 2c | 1,125$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 1,120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a9…7b59backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 2c | 990.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215c…f0b6backed Yes | 2c | 927$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79be…c0abbacked Yes | 2c | 787$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes | 8c | 758.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 2c | 630$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 2c | 585.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 5c | 226.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?this page
- Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.