TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0325…16e7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: World Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Middle East at 35.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-5.5wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-62.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$658Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$658.39
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$658Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$658.08
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.75
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$562Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$562.4
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$44.94
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$352Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$165.44
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$119.04
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$74.97
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$641Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$640.95
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$249.44
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$439.92
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$654Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$654
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$724Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$723.92
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$219
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+81.8%+$13.95
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$816Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$384
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick19cpaid+126%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,461Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,461.08
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,457Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,456.52
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,576Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,576.13
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+719.2%+$2,280.87
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,027Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+581.2%+$5,970.1
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$324.64
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$251.78
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$1,392.3
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$527Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$526.51
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$272.95
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$850Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+243.8%+$2,073.57
Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$171.86
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$491Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$491.2
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+108.3%+$195.52
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+156.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$689Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$689
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$689Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$689
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+25%+$34.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$62.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$368.47
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.