Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0d4ee47d3abe6161f1e8f93bfe46d06d1ffd63f48e71c49aa81b2250e152e8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $213,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 354 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 42c | 15,269$6,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,453.41 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 38c | 10,343$3,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,891.52 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 9,715$6,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,586.14 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…952ebacked Yes | 62c | 7,730$4,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,937.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 45c | 7,644$3,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,425.9 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 62c | 5,015$3,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,886.78 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…2dafbacked Yes | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…70b0backed Yes | 65c | 4,919$3,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.89 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed No | 40c | 3,500$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.5 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 2c | 3,005$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 33c | 2,922$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.38 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…fb79backed Yes | 45c | 2,712$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 64c | 2,603$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.75 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 40c | 2,571$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.09 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 50c | 2,098$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.63 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 55c | 2,010$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.06 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 37c | 1,888$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.29 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78dd…ed8fbacked Yes | 63c | 1,737$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed Yes | 55c | 1,706$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 26c | 1,684$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.47 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 63c | 1,657$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.06 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd9…1fd8backed Yes | 60c | 1,632$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 61c | 1,470$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.5 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 61c | 1,465$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.05 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 52c | 1,379$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.7 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…f412backed No | 49c | 1,355$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8df…74efbacked Yes | 57c | 1,283$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked No | 27c | 1,271$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3782…3ef4backed No | 61c | 1,180$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 68c | 1,175$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.18 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 37c | 1,108$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.51 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a2…838bbacked No | 33c | 1,095$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 49c | 1,089$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.48 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…5ab8backed Yes | 64c | 1,084$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,019$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 60c | 973.23$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.81 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 40c | 963.19$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.28 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 60c | 880.41$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.96 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 51c | 837.92$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.56 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 65c | 837$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.8 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3903…e027backed No | 41c | 819.1$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 50c | 815.87$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.06 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 814.58$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.96 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 41c | 800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…0a36backed Yes | 59c | 761$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…34c8backed Yes | 79c | 754.83$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…0435backed No | 41c | 740.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…3570backed No | 55c | 712$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 711.22$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.89 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…b8a7backed No | 43c | 711$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3b…1e2ebacked Yes | 71c | 702.8$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e0…0720backed Yes | 68c | 689.5$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 39c | 683.18$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.76 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 656.06$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.58 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 39c | 634.13$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.4 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7af…1e9fbacked Yes | 60c | 623.17$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae1…f52fbacked Yes | 70c | 621.67$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.71 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +501.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…3beebacked No | 40c | 614$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…bdb2backed Yes | 70c | 600$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.2 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +261.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 54c | 582.01$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.72 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed No | 41c | 576.38$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes | 53c | 576.02$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.81 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…5f1cbacked Yes | 54c | 558.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.27 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed No | 35c | 555$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.77 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -9.1wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0325…16e7backed No | 46c | 545$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.44 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -5.5wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 53c | 528.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.47 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 53c | 520$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.4 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 55c | 520$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.5 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 42c | 519$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +358.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 42c | 507.04$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.69 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2576…d845backed No | 41c | 479.36$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 54c | 459.88$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 39c | 450$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.25 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…7af4backed No | 35c | 442.91$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d75…a5c3backed No | 43c | 421.4$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 63c | 415.66$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 64c | 403.66$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 64c | 401.42$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.42 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…b17fbacked Yes | 67c | 399.56$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.76 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd5…db6ebacked Yes | 50c | 398.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…43c1backed Yes | 65c | 397.63$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.23 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed Yes | 65c | 389.92$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.61 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b1…8bffbacked Yes | 43c | 388.37$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe0…2aefbacked Yes | 61c | 366.94$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…d758backed Yes | 42c | 366.72$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 36c | 353.27$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.66 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…11f1backed Yes | 51c | 352.96$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…e1e8backed Yes | 59c | 350$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…4b09backed No | 22c | 350$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 40c | 349.78$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…e5d2backed No | 46c | 347.26$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…7681backed No | 26c | 346.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 45c | 346.27$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.89 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…2bc6backed Yes | 61c | 342.22$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.22 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 338.8$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.49 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe4…5504backed No | 38c | 335.29$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 36c | 323.17$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.34 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?this page
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.