Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x772d27149308cf235cc1695ae551b66c291e43f132f93a16358f240c2dc25301
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $431,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $410,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 12c | 47,612$5,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,721.37 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 22,058$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.87 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 12c | 20,614$2,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,531.57 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 11c | 19,953$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.89 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 11c | 19,462$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.61 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…a091backed Yes | 13c | 8,561$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9374…1556backed Yes | 14c | 6,900$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 5c | 6,066$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.64 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,912$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.28 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…7db6backed Yes | 3c | 5,277$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 10c | 4,443$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 11c | 4,300$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.63 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba4…97b8backed Yes | 3c | 3,517$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 9c | 3,380$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.19 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb126…06d0backed Yes | 11c | 3,374$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 10c | 3,217$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.34 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 10c | 3,120$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.86 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 2c | 3,096$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 3,043$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.87 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 10c | 2,908$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.77 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 5c | 2,764$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…ced9backed Yes | 3c | 2,495$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 2,474$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…2187backed Yes | 16c | 2,286$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.67 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 2,268$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,199$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.77 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…4d73backed Yes | 5c | 2,186$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28cf…02b9backed Yes | 9c | 2,098$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Yes | 7c | 1,750$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +721.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…4821backed Yes | 13c | 1,454$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.74 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…3d8abacked Yes | 14c | 1,409$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 15c | 1,212$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.8 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,109$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,102$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…9949backed Yes | 19c | 1,058$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.94 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed Yes | 7c | 1,035$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…d32ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,032$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.04 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6552…bcb4backed Yes | 2c | 1,009$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Yes | 6c | 1,003$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…a4d4backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…8a27backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 12c | 925.75$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.09 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729c…6cc3backed Yes | 12c | 819.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 4c | 672.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9478backed Yes | 2c | 664.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…96f1backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…7774backed Yes | 14c | 574.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4a…cacabacked Yes | 12c | 525.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…a680backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…b3ddbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 16c | 500$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3db8…5f0abacked Yes | 11c | 495.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked Yes | 18c | 489.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 8c | 461.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 13c | 461.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 12c | 441.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…1da5backed Yes | 16c | 430.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 12c | 407.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 17c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92db…5421backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…8642backed Yes | 4c | 392.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 9c | 385.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be8…23aabacked Yes | 4c | 370.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…74b4backed Yes | 12c | 368.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…70febacked Yes | 14c | 359.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf51…0f7cbacked Yes | 6c | 334.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf05…4a54backed Yes | 17c | 327.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…1ff9backed Yes | 16c | 310$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 79c | 305$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…4832backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…de4ebacked Yes | 6c | 299$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ee…a9dbbacked Yes | 4c | 280$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 12c | 255.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…8e90backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…28ffbacked Yes | 5c | 247$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…152dbacked Yes | 4c | 243.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…8cfbbacked Yes | 8c | 237.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed Yes | 13c | 229.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…c023backed Yes | 9c | 209.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…7e8abacked Yes | 19c | 209$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8573…6b6bbacked Yes | 11c | 201.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 12c | 200.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…c0aabacked Yes | 6c | 195.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0193…8779backed Yes | 7c | 171.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…b571backed Yes | 18c | 165.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25cf…f82fbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb4…d58ebacked Yes | 9c | 150.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…2781backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74f…2887backed Yes | 24c | 146.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…521fbacked Yes | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee3a…7c47backed Yes | 19c | 113.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86db…0abdbacked Yes | 17c | 110.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…2631backed Yes | 11c | 102.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 11c | 100.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d157backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30?this page
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.