Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68469fb64aca83a6ae036946381e20a8c8d25b6e690da1b2bb23e250abc2a261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $839,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $766,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $839,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 367 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 8c | 73,331$5,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,818.01 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 33c | 50,000$16,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,499.95 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 40,085$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.89 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 30,671$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.96 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 79c | 30,218$23,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,395.13 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 27,041$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.3 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 68c | 26,344$17,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,535.52 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 67c | 15,889$10,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,243.45 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 72c | 13,202$9,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,698.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 2c | 11,437$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.36 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb126…06d0backed Yes | 18c | 10,874$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69cb…f272backed Yes | 2c | 10,412$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 77c | 10,176$7,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,381.11 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fe…d5eebacked Yes | 24c | 9,839$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 0c | 9,700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 17c | 9,212$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.71 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 8c | 7,902$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.76 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…4050backed Yes | 4c | 7,343$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 22c | 7,256$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.33 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 27c | 7,000$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.67 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 20c | 6,483$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.24 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…10b3backed Yes | 23c | 6,440$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 73c | 5,895$4,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.62 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 75c | 5,811$4,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.07 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 10c | 4,472$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.9 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…692abacked No | 77c | 4,277$3,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 24c | 4,178$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.35 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 73c | 4,102$2,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.16 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e3…4603backed Yes | 30c | 4,017$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…106abacked Yes | 24c | 4,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked Yes | 17c | 3,727$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe487…aca6backed No | 79c | 3,530$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 15c | 3,387$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.18 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Yes | 26c | 3,360$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…5369backed Yes | 6c | 3,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 23c | 3,259$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.65 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +467.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…39f3backed Yes | 29c | 3,021$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked No | 66c | 3,002$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.44 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.2wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69ea…15cdbacked No | 79c | 2,900$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.52 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae4a…f595backed Yes | 18c | 2,887$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,800$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb753…f859backed Yes | 36c | 2,783$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.78 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked No | 68c | 2,743$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.61 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 20c | 2,705$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.39 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…4e5abacked Yes | 27c | 2,573$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.83 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed No | 79c | 2,500$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 74c | 2,423$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.62 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,282$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b3…0df9backed Yes | 6c | 2,214$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 66c | 2,191$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.45 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a20…c0bcbacked Yes | 28c | 2,132$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 16c | 2,092$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.56 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 10c | 2,087$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.91 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes | 1c | 2,070$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed Yes | 30c | 2,020$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.37 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf18…91eabacked Yes | 19c | 2,011$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…96f1backed Yes | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…e955backed Yes | 18c | 1,944$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 21c | 1,903$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…5a9fbacked No | 79c | 1,900$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd2…0bd8backed No | 78c | 1,888$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.73 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -7.7wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 24c | 1,879$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.54 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 19c | 1,798$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.83 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 2c | 1,793$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 20c | 1,783$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 75c | 1,759$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.76 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…bd13backed Yes | 4c | 1,677$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf239…90dcbacked Yes | 11c | 1,520$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…ae1bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,516$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed No | 77c | 1,467$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.47 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 80c | 1,425$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…3291backed No | 79c | 1,350$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.02 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,311$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.5 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f6…09dcbacked Yes | 20c | 1,310$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.85 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 42cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 21c | 1,303$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…8a27backed Yes | 23c | 1,292$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 80c | 1,256$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.88 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 28c | 1,232$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 23c | 1,200$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.78 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9374…1556backed Yes | 21c | 1,197$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…2187backed Yes | 12c | 1,150$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed Yes | 17c | 1,148$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…c9c3backed No | 79c | 1,115$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.75 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 75c | 1,103$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.05 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 70c | 1,082$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.01 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 24c | 1,059$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.05 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…8ed4backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…c543backed Yes | 29c | 1,037$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 77c | 1,036$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.1 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…a4d4backed Yes | 24c | 1,024$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9414…4f51backed Yes | 39c | 1,023$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 67c | 1,009$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.05 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ee…a9dbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,006$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be8…23aabacked Yes | 11c | 1,005$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…e2ebbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?this page
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.