Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4b2d2cc364a536813bb400a0aac9dce912e8c880f4f368bdbcc59256d50a3f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,078,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,060,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,078,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 425 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 38c | 164,665$63,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,195.41 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked No | 60c | 51,233$30,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,514.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 61c | 49,825$30,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,431.65 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked No | 69c | 42,878$29,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,440.68 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 62c | 38,872$24,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,609.08 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 3c | 30,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 3c | 28,993$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 27,933$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.99 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 15c | 25,559$3,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,736.91 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 19,014$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.67 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 2c | 17,602$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.42 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 3c | 17,095$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.09 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3037…3e7ebacked Yes | 40c | 16,699$6,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,754.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…0547backed Yes | 5c | 15,020$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…9752backed Yes | 2c | 12,876$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 6c | 12,801$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.36 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…09d9backed Yes | 3c | 12,684$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…cb85backed Yes | 3c | 10,989$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 15c | 8,600$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked No | 79c | 8,424$6,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…ae1bbacked Yes | 27c | 6,257$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed52…9122backed Yes | 3c | 6,212$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.16 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 57c | 6,000$3,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,567.02 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 11c | 5,913$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.83 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,663$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…6202backed Yes | 1c | 5,634$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,616$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…98b2backed Yes | 11c | 5,578$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501b…fba0backed Yes | 2c | 4,459$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 8c | 4,352$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.8 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf6…fecebacked Yes | 3c | 4,225$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…666fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,129$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18f2…c5b2backed Yes | 3c | 3,987$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 78c | 3,948$3,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.06 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 75c | 3,860$2,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.95 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…af47backed Yes | 44c | 3,673$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…c9c3backed No | 59c | 3,664$2,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.93 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 3,657$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 3c | 3,637$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 3,467$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 80c | 3,428$2,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.9 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3524…e34ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,363$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 64c | 3,363$2,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.12 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,312$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes | 31c | 3,300$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 80c | 3,290$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.03 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,242$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 71c | 3,200$2,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.95 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…0b32backed Yes | 28c | 3,149$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 3c | 3,124$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 2c | 3,116$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…c7a0backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 10c | 2,974$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.49 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…eae9backed Yes | 14c | 2,930$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +168%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 19c | 2,910$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.55 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 2,789$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed No | 59c | 2,699$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.57 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,667$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.21 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07da…37c2backed Yes | 2c | 2,621$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 42c | 2,614$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.91 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 11c | 2,409$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.09 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 75c | 2,380$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.35 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3582…88f2backed Yes | 3c | 2,318$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 34c | 2,274$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.34 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 18c | 2,223$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.82 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…4455backed Yes | 2c | 2,198$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe30a…cde6backed Yes | 2c | 2,058$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,000$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 76c | 1,983$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.93 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 3c | 1,968$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,968$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 67c | 1,885$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.41 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bde…8c91backed No | 61c | 1,876$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,854$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 47c | 1,849$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +467.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…f70abacked No | 65c | 1,788$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.02 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e5…5a92backed Yes | 5c | 1,787$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 60c | 1,780$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.27 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6552…bcb4backed Yes | 40c | 1,773$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,759$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 61c | 1,690$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.8 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…b498backed No | 61c | 1,671$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.13 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 2c | 1,599$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…34c8backed Yes | 10c | 1,555$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…4b54backed Yes | 3c | 1,522$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 2c | 1,521$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…0b9cbacked No | 61c | 1,509$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,507$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…52abbacked Yes | 10c | 1,506$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 46c | 1,448$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.93 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x22ca…ebc1backed Yes | 1c | 1,436$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dce…dba5backed Yes | 3c | 1,427$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes | 3c | 1,384$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…dc4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,378$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 61c | 1,370$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.67 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 1,367$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.48 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…563bbacked No | 63c | 1,363$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 25c | 1,348$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.27 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?this page
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.