Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8b730810252255fa217a2828b46b7a3c0ed63b702c817461270ce9e65b5ec25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,378,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,454,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,378,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 973 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 75c | 79,511$59,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,312.18 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 24c | 78,690$19,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,556.17 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 64c | 41,490$26,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,488.09 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 57c | 36,485$20,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,672.97 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…fb37backed No | 67c | 31,074$20,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,883.2 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 49c | 30,941$15,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,253.28 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 29,718$15,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,975.49 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 47c | 27,934$13,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,714.22 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…52cfbacked No | 76c | 23,866$18,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,101.28 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -10.4wins | -0.36per pick | 60cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 31c | 23,581$7,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,153.28 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa584…28e5backed No | 70c | 20,761$14,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,497.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c59…c5cdbacked Yes | 45c | 20,000$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,000 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8186…c998backed Yes | 27c | 18,678$5,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,634.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb948…d0a1backed Yes | 39c | 17,234$6,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,525.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…5550backed Yes | 28c | 14,779$4,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,640.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +174.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…fc93backed Yes | 36c | 13,794$4,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,815.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 53c | 13,447$7,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,094.99 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed No | 41c | 12,603$5,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,190.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 65c | 12,404$8,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,041.8 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 46c | 12,221$5,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,597.43 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 71c | 12,069$8,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,592.23 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 27c | 11,328$3,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,306.38 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 47c | 11,207$5,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,260.59 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d63…348dbacked Yes | 28c | 10,880$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,880.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 53c | 10,597$5,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,028.24 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed No | 71c | 10,504$7,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,432.72 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x428c…880fbacked Yes | 30c | 10,479$3,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,335.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…2dafbacked Yes | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…c5cdbacked Yes | 29c | 9,450$2,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,709.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +140%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 56c | 8,415$4,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,665.64 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 46c | 8,035$3,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,375.05 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…116fbacked No | 51c | 7,862$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…30c9backed Yes | 53c | 7,665$4,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,579.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 59c | 7,575$4,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,432.06 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 61c | 7,303$4,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,465.53 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…43c1backed No | 43c | 6,661$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880.39 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba87…6861backed Yes | 41c | 6,526$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,825.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +798.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…7baabacked No | 73c | 6,520$4,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,759.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab3…dd6dbacked Yes | 38c | 6,398$2,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,972.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a9…941bbacked No | 73c | 6,330$4,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,620.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 52c | 6,194$3,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,228.8 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…47bdbacked No | 73c | 5,828$4,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,254.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked No | 74c | 5,607$4,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,148.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.37per pick | 60cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…488bbacked No | 63c | 5,588$3,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,520 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cb…e25fbacked Yes | 37c | 5,568$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,507.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef8d…5ca3backed Yes | 26c | 5,294$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,896.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044c…6987backed Yes | 35c | 5,271$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,440.79 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 34c | 5,249$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,459.51 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 26c | 5,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked No | 55c | 5,000$2,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,741.54 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 53c | 4,827$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.24 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 62c | 4,698$2,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,924.44 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 50c | 4,679$2,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,345.89 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked No | 50c | 4,473$2,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,257.42 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 29c | 4,128$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,938.47 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21aa…8da1backed No | 72c | 4,089$2,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,944.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 59c | 4,070$2,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,413.96 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 74c | 4,064$3,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,020.82 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 44c | 4,015$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250.29 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 77c | 4,000$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,079.98 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,932$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…479cbacked Yes | 52c | 3,930$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…d53fbacked No | 70c | 3,850$2,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,695 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 44c | 3,819$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.8 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…99cbbacked No | 72c | 3,716$2,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,675.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 61c | 3,700$2,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,265.98 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 29c | 3,595$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,564.95 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 29c | 3,549$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,529.24 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…2cd0backed No | 72c | 3,549$2,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,555.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 24c | 3,507$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,657.99 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…fda4backed No | 70c | 3,489$2,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,442.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…0f33backed No | 52c | 3,465$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.23 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacc7…18a1backed No | 72c | 3,425$2,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,466 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9669…832abacked No | 71c | 3,400$2,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…09d8backed Yes | 33c | 3,345$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 71c | 3,333$2,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,366.43 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 45c | 3,147$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.02 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446c…82dabacked No | 70c | 3,140$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 55c | 3,095$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.76 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 66c | 3,060$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,013.02 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…a204backed No | 71c | 3,050$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed No | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ee…8eeabacked No | 71c | 3,000$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 50c | 3,000$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…6b67backed Yes | 26c | 2,958$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,175.78 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…586abacked No | 69c | 2,926$2,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030.88 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 76c | 2,917$2,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.05 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc549…1f4cbacked No | 67c | 2,900$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 35c | 2,892$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.42 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed No | 64c | 2,820$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.73 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…88a4backed Yes | 48c | 2,806$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed No | 73c | 2,802$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,046.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…0880backed No | 44c | 2,714$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 62c | 2,708$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.51 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…27b3backed Yes | 36c | 2,690$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed No | 52c | 2,649$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 51c | 2,637$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.71 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 2,626$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.65 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 75c | 2,611$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.91 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?this page
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.