Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x334db576fe343f354fec428c296243e6297a2c8b665f71882434d6ee97a8df48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $209,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 1c | 23,773$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.27 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 10,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 8,381$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.28 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,698$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.76 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9c…0f95backed Yes | 2c | 5,595$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,412$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,916$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 5c | 4,131$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.68 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be0…0154backed Yes | 4c | 3,537$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…aa15backed Yes | 3c | 3,425$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…399cbacked Yes | 11c | 3,394$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bef…6d3abacked Yes | 8c | 3,261$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 6c | 2,916$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.62 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,841$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…c166backed Yes | 0c | 2,595$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf6…fecebacked Yes | 5c | 2,173$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.06 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 2,160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,013$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 72c | 1,802$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.94 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…1c2bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,451$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81a…eec2backed Yes | 3c | 1,342$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 10c | 1,220$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e5…dcc9backed Yes | 4c | 1,219$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…4d49backed No | 73c | 1,200$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.68 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ed…de02backed Yes | 9c | 1,087$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb068…4befbacked Yes | 3c | 994.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed Yes | 34c | 946.27$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddc…3428backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 797.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 716$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 668.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed Yes | 17c | 641$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 78c | 606.64$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4426…2103backed Yes | 33c | 572.35$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef83…d8bbbacked Yes | 5c | 558.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84c…da71backed Yes | 37c | 515.93$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 19c | 505.59$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7f…4326backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed No | 74c | 482.94$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…499bbacked Yes | 6c | 455.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc95…508abacked Yes | 3c | 431.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…8f7bbacked Yes | 13c | 423.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 406.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26c1…1098backed Yes | 5c | 400.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b54…cb72backed Yes | 6c | 398.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 6c | 383.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…ec8fbacked Yes | 27c | 370.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 65c | 360.23$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.21 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…a5e4backed Yes | 3c | 350.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a60…e756backed Yes | 5c | 314.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4170…ad4cbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6fd8backed Yes | 19c | 274.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 7c | 269.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 256.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 4c | 255.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked No | 79c | 250$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…2022backed Yes | 10c | 236.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a35…a08fbacked Yes | 6c | 235.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 4c | 231.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…24c0backed Yes | 16c | 227.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…c90dbacked Yes | 5c | 200.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…1f8ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 13c | 187.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 62c | 177.03$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked No | 52c | 176.66$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 79c | 173.75$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 48 | 83.3%40 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d662backed Yes | 26c | 173.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b2…1b0fbacked Yes | 27c | 171.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…9bafbacked Yes | 30c | 165.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 8c | 165.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…f59cbacked Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…28a6backed Yes | 22c | 157.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes | 19c | 157.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…232abacked Yes | 37c | 150.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf85…d0b6backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 9c | 139.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67e9…da27backed Yes | 13c | 138.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d88…8d05backed Yes | 23c | 131.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc488…9ecdbacked Yes | 49c | 130$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 72c | 125$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…8b0dbacked Yes | 31c | 124.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…a516backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 23c | 116.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeee5…6b05backed Yes | 13c | 107.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe73d…7e55backed Yes | 10c | 106.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196e…e2ecbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 51c | 106.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…accebacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd301…49cdbacked Yes | 34c | 103.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…194abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2435…f14dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? this page
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?No won
- Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.