TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x79e5…dcc9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
88
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Premier League, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-74.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$122
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$881Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$880.65
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$350.89
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$346Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+73.1%+$252.55
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$903Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$903.42
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.8
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.73
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.77
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,826Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.3%+$516.51
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$850Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+37%+$314.52
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$333
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 17 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$764Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$764.11
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,032Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$421.08
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,167Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+53.3%+$621.82
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$851Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+56.8%+$483.41
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.22
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,664Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+87.7%+$1,459.55
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+75.7%+$90.88
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+142.2%+$162.22
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+57.2%+$28.59
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$172.21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,306Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,306.14
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for 10 seconds or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+388.7%+$388.75
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$169.39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,928Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,928.05
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$77.98
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$261.43
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$105.11
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$113.8
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+167.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+149.3%+$149.33
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.86
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$717.96
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+1,499.8%+$598.29
GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$37
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$99.42
DeepSeek removed from App Store before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$268.84
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+80.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+157.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Chimaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$449.28
Pereira vs. Ankalaevbacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$228.62
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$11.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$11.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.