Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x998a29b0e455ec30c787e52be6edd0620b8b16567e0761b0d08a0fd8c4fa7e2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 75c | 3,639$2,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2ab4backed No | 75c | 2,721$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 22c | 1,956$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.94 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,312$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.9 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 23c | 1,278$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.06 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…f233backed Yes | 20c | 1,273$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.3 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 25c | 1,200$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.61 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 77c | 1,137$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…3224backed Yes | 28c | 886.58$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 23c | 692.16$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.37 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed No | 76c | 680$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 23c | 605.57$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.9 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…4bc1backed Yes | 26c | 515.42$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…8b9fbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 499.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 21c | 476.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…747abacked Yes | 26c | 456.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 12c | 424.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes | 24c | 420.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…877ebacked Yes | 25c | 416.79$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 24c | 406.57$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeede…8a73backed Yes | 22c | 405.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 25c | 400$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e5…dcc9backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 23c | 361.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…a1debacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed Yes | 25c | 342.79$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 75c | 341.02$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.06 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…914abacked No | 77c | 324.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…5903backed Yes | 32c | 314$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0541…5ecfbacked Yes | 26c | 304.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…7db5backed Yes | 20c | 299.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed Yes | 24c | 291.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b14…844dbacked Yes | 22c | 288.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 69c | 256.22$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2047…f9fbbacked Yes | 22c | 250$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 24c | 245$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 76c | 234.97$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…8b4fbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec2…f8fabacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed No | 72c | 215.71$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Yes | 24c | 212.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 73c | 205$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…2f2abacked No | 75c | 200.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb50…798abacked Yes | 26c | 195.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6b…50a2backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc1…56cabacked Yes | 27c | 182.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed No | 72c | 176$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…c262backed Yes | 31c | 160.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 33c | 149.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4052…89d6backed Yes | 28c | 144.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…0a7cbacked Yes | 26c | 142.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 119.75$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…cc4cbacked Yes | 25c | 117.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…148dbacked Yes | 25c | 115$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…02bcbacked Yes | 28c | 110.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73dfbacked Yes | 28c | 100.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85e0…e601backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…b6f3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6189…d6ebbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…c116backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60bb…833abacked Yes | 21c | 97.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…5d07backed Yes | 26c | 97.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…f758backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c70…6ce0backed Yes | 32c | 95.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 73c | 81.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…1492backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9de…d12cbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a94…0228backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…061fbacked Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe507…cce6backed Yes | 24c | 76.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8659…568fbacked Yes | 27c | 73.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18e0…d024backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 20c | 70.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…bce0backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae6…dd45backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…a852backed Yes | 26c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750e…a3bfbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…3ef0backed Yes | 23c | 57.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 55.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x119f…2c27backed Yes | 19c | 55.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?this page
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for 10 seconds or more?Yes won
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 6 and 8 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for less than 2 seconds?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.