TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,152
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,606

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,152 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x53cb…fc91backed Yes25c5,000$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.681118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed No75c3,639$2,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.61540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59cc…2ab4backed No75c2,721$2,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes22c1,956$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.9414121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes3c1,700$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56905.6%5 W · 85 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-82.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes21c1,312$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.91717.6%3 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes23c1,278$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.062259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50a0…f233backed Yes20c1,273$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.3224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-86.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb3…2682backed Yes25c1,200$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.611844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No77c1,137$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.781442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…3224backed Yes28c886.58$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes23c692.16$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.379932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed No76c680$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.921643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7319…0299backed Yes23c605.57$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.96814.7%10 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca8…4bc1backed Yes26c515.42$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12511050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bf2…8b9fbacked Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes24c499.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11826835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes21c476.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.947525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc576…747abacked Yes26c456.2$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes12c424.7$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.191926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes24c420.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5d…877ebacked Yes25c416.79$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes24c406.57$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2811542.6%49 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeede…8a73backed Yes22c405.37$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x247d…7d27backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed Yes25c400$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.91414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-79.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79e5…dcc9backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes23c361.67$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.982740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+44.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x27ee…a1debacked Yes29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-65.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1797…baa7backed Yes25c342.79$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.511010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-85.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No75c341.02$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.066159%36 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x024e…914abacked No77c324.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…5903backed Yes32c314$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.781040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0541…5ecfbacked Yes26c304.62$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d1…7db5backed Yes20c299.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc3c…a384backed Yes24c291.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b14…844dbacked Yes22c288.91$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No69c256.22$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.991266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.514920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.515217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2047…f9fbbacked Yes22c250$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes24c245$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.81040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No76c234.97$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.475479.6%43 W · 11 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4cc…8b4fbacked Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ec2…f8fabacked Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed No72c215.71$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.42142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55fd…2c99backed Yes24c212.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No73c205$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.353951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a43…2f2abacked No75c200.4$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523652.8%19 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes28c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5760%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed No74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes18c199.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366933.3%23 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb50…798abacked Yes26c195.9$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.85633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e6b…50a2backed Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc1…56cabacked Yes27c182.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No72c176$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.166100%6 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+94.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x63f3…c262backed Yes31c160.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes26c153.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402540%10 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes23c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.57241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed Yes33c149.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick24cpaid-82.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4052…89d6backed Yes28c144.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e8…0a7cbacked Yes26c142.85$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.14520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes24c130$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.088641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes24c120$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.84555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No78c119.75$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7939429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea88…cc4cbacked Yes25c117.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1414…148dbacked Yes25c115$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa39e…02bcbacked Yes28c110.71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3130%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes25c110$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff0…73dfbacked Yes28c100.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85e0…e601backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe063…b6f3backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6189…d6ebbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7285…c116backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes27c99.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60bb…833abacked Yes21c97.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.54425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a8…5d07backed Yes26c97.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1889…f758backed Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c70…6ce0backed Yes32c95.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No73c81.37$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6521426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a96…1492backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9de…d12cbacked Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a94…0228backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…061fbacked Yes32c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-62.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe507…cce6backed Yes24c76.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8659…568fbacked Yes27c73.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x18e0…d024backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed Yes20c70.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144511.1%5 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb125…bce0backed Yes24c70$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae6…dd45backed Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf28b…a852backed Yes26c63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x750e…a3bfbacked Yes26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb39d…3ef0backed Yes23c57.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes26c55.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2625528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x119f…2c27backed Yes19c55.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c03…12b2backed Yes25c55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.75329.4%3 W · 29 L-6.3wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-74.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.