Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for less than 2 seconds?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aff8e44204042f38588f3c81013e4b8820dc8f38f6551e2c4735ed905a47563
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 7c | 3,292$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.24 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 10c | 2,834$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.26 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 2,100$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.09 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 19c | 1,824$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d7…d604backed Yes | 6c | 1,602$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,249$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,114$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 7c | 1,032$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…4bc1backed Yes | 10c | 975.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 3c | 649.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 14c | 599.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed Yes | 33c | 599.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73dfbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 452.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2047…f9fbbacked Yes | 6c | 450$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 8c | 444$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b7…667abacked Yes | 4c | 432.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 5c | 415.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…bddcbacked Yes | 5c | 386.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…148dbacked Yes | 11c | 365.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a4…3956backed Yes | 5c | 349.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1649…c6d9backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2979…5137backed Yes | 4c | 314.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 79c | 295$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 4c | 278.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes | 15c | 249.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 225.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…061fbacked Yes | 13c | 220$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeede…8a73backed Yes | 5c | 205.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 80c | 190.91$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 7c | 182.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 11c | 165$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97b…75a0backed Yes | 12c | 161.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…61edbacked Yes | 19c | 155$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8659…568fbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c70…6ce0backed Yes | 14c | 144.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 17c | 94.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…3a3dbacked Yes | 15c | 76.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 79c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for less than 2 seconds?this page
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for 10 seconds or more?Yes won
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 6 and 8 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.