Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a5d419d46461a8084a2d6e42b1014831f6b2ded8948ebd5638e5886c74be67a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7117…3a3ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,133$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 10c | 2,122$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.06 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 17c | 1,049$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.62 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…9b59backed Yes | 10c | 1,026$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 11c | 1,003$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 10c | 999.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 10c | 782$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 9c | 752.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…09c8backed Yes | 10c | 605$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 10c | 580$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 14c | 570.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 10c | 528.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 15c | 526.57$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 9c | 525.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 450.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 9c | 434$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed Yes | 14c | 419.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…8b4fbacked Yes | 17c | 377.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa79…25e6backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Yes | 16c | 306.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…d132backed Yes | 19c | 264.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…b37dbacked Yes | 12c | 236$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…7578backed Yes | 11c | 224.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 210.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes | 19c | 206$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1846…e81fbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…c1dcbacked Yes | 11c | 182.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…5903backed Yes | 15c | 168.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…8c93backed Yes | 13c | 139.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1e…2577backed Yes | 15c | 136.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Yes | 15c | 135.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22bd…ad18backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 69c | 127.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…9785backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…bc60backed Yes | 16c | 124.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 70c | 114.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3405…30edbacked Yes | 25c | 100.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe25…f3ecbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…8761backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…adafbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…8938backed Yes | 30c | 99.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e6…1d2bbacked Yes | 16c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d34…a987backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf535…7c3abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…d680backed Yes | 17c | 61.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds?this page
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for 10 seconds or more?Yes won
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 6 and 8 seconds?No won
- Will Trump and Putin shake hands for less than 2 seconds?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.