TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$637,164
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$468,642

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $637,164 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6cf…fdc5backed No75c50,039$37,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,509.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43c6…67c0backed Yes25c50,039$12,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,509.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c39,000$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed Yes2c38,456$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-54.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c35,774$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.86883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes5c27,636$1,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.3519027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc123…50afbacked Yes5c27,124$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.11216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes3c21,292$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.736119.7%12 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes1c18,975$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.136622.7%15 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9f…8772backed Yes1c16,901$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.991816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes1c14,969$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7511013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3b2…d4d4backed Yes4c14,744$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.332123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick14cpaid-1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12b0…0634backed Yes0c12,082$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes4c10,250$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.6618214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x465c…db7ebacked Yes2c8,529$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.05922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-55.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5edc…4d06backed Yes7c6,252$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes7c5,831$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.2610520%21 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes1c5,648$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.854513.3%6 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-65.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes4c5,591$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.532740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e04…88abbacked Yes0c5,500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes3c5,221$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.0743243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa17…1547backed Yes5c5,040$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.0650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25b9…653cbacked Yes5c5,023$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes16c4,807$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.1210122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x34ba…21abbacked Yes8c4,398$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cf2…4b85backed Yes3c3,812$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4135…d977backed Yes8c3,384$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.38933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3835…7f72backed Yes9c3,322$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.641618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-52.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc485…17efbacked Yes5c3,267$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dda…fbefbacked Yes5c3,201$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa132…09bfbacked Yes3c3,197$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc424…93a9backed Yes3c3,085$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4fb…859dbacked Yes4c2,934$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e8…0819backed Yes4c2,739$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.53837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick14cpaid+454.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x867c…5d65backed Yes4c2,622$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.451526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick15cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5187…dbd2backed Yes5c2,346$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed19…0f62backed Yes5c2,205$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes13c2,077$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5916744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb558…3d55backed Yes3c1,933$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.371618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdde…f383backed Yes3c1,862$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68af…e8a4backed Yes4c1,784$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-71.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ea…2df1backed Yes7c1,541$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+63.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6216…5403backed Yes4c1,500$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.81922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+235.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb773…b94dbacked Yes6c1,487$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.26633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090c…378ebacked Yes23c1,433$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.58757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d05…f421backed Yes2c1,391$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.641127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick17cpaid-30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes15c1,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x5cd8…9806backed Yes5c1,294$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602025%5 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc927…c3d5backed Yes4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2470%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef7…e693backed Yes4c1,245$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.55944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7581…9679backed Yes19c1,240$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3291…df75backed Yes1c1,219$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6853…e0a1backed Yes4c1,209$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72e1…7d89backed No70c1,192$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.613050%15 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda0c…bd0bbacked Yes17c1,134$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.241822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef4…681dbacked Yes7c1,100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd03c…45fcbacked Yes5c1,033$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.261618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa3…da37backed Yes5c1,023$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.132030%6 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed Yes13c1,009$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.135238.5%20 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bce…3fdcbacked Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes4c965.9$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6231443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c963.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.671,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c41…9cb1backed Yes4c935.53$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+72.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x048a…879ebacked Yes12c926.31$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.31717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf08d…9faebacked Yes14c873.7$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79fa…8a55backed Yes4c850.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.251850%9 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6943…7462backed Yes19c839.41$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.093633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes22c835.37$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.455341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d06…ff56backed Yes4c816.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda08…2abdbacked Yes13c704.45$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7897…aea0backed Yes3c702.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a93…8099backed Yes3c656.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes31c640.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001040%4 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1849…aca9backed Yes3c587$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick21cpaid+46.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeda1…78f5backed Yes4c567.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94a…9150backed Yes9c567$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeac3…470ebacked Yes4c540.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52c2…8f1bbacked Yes3c535.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb076…e62dbacked Yes30c533$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.51827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes4c527.95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3819623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66af…ffa9backed Yes4c520.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.952934.5%10 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+443.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa815…6a01backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe3…cf5bbacked Yes4c500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+120.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b66…1281backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c4b…4382backed Yes28c466.24$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.11723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…7410backed Yes4c458.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7d…4b0abacked Yes5c450.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad2…9fc8backed Yes16c442.3$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.774639.1%18 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30e1…59f0backed Yes4c440.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-60.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09e…ee74backed Yes5c429.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a9f…22b5backed Yes4c423.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe045…9cf1backed Yes4c403.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes14c400$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5417524.6%43 W · 132 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes4c400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.55530.9%17 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-46.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6463…af94backed Yes4c388.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9d2…3093backed Yes3c379.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e18…0786backed Yes8c375$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ac…94edbacked Yes3c368.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-81.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…7b11backed Yes26c362.5$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.