TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Elena Lasconi win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$599,136
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$153,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $599,136 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c41,035$114 inLost-$113.984121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cee…b66dbacked Yes0c17,659$20 inLost-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…2995backed Yes0c12,258$37 inLost-$36.771414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-62%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e07…a1bfbacked Yes1c10,260$65 inLost-$6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdde…f383backed Yes0c7,428$20 inLost-$202231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c7,023$28 inLost-$28.474521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c6,158$21 inLost-$21.361344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes1c2,518$33 inLost-$32.826622.7%15 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes2c1,109$26 inLost-$25.7938023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…45b1backed Yes6c1,004$60 inLost-$60.231435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes2c731.99$12 inLost-$11.84786.4%5 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-77.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes4c727.05$26 inLost-$25.9834726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes2c610$14 inLost-$13.875123.5%12 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a1b…7818backed Yes3c580.22$15 inLost-$14.81931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes3c562.83$19 inLost-$18.947038.6%27 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc786…d82ebacked Yes13c339$45 inLost-$44.841421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+166.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes10c206.56$21 inLost-$20.669721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost-$2218628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes14c120$17 inLost-$16.850%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes13c110.93$14 inLost-$14.4257636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fca…7477backed Yes10c102.85$10 inLost-$10.29633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed Yes11c100$11 inLost-$1132255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes11c100$11 inLost-$112317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.