World Politics · resolved market
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa742d912601082995f710f59b32044b2a29b49f4245a3d34e989cc7fd974a01d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $227,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7c4…c5abbacked Yes | 0c | 52,766$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.25 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 29,047$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.98 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 23,282$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,601$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…4910backed Yes | 0c | 8,651$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…8420backed Yes | 0c | 6,473$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,095$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…36afbacked Yes | 1c | 3,611$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,274$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f5…a5ebbacked Yes | 6c | 1,914$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,455$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 1c | 1,366$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 2c | 1,284$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…0800backed Yes | 1c | 1,011$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 1c | 992.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…0082backed Yes | 3c | 855$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 2c | 643$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcad2…9fc8backed Yes | 5c | 561.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…99efbacked Yes | 3c | 391$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6886…d8b8backed Yes | 3c | 348.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?this page
- Will Anton Pisaroglu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Elena Lasconi win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Marcel Ciolacu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Mircea Geoană win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Nicolae Ciucă win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will someone else win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.