World Politics · resolved market
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8702261edac5d25be23c11c9d81fa3a08a95959a19197439dcbd616dfff0a371
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $460,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $650,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $460,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 12,097$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,398$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…b369backed Yes | 6c | 2,486$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…48a0backed Yes | 1c | 1,147$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa4…2e79backed Yes | 4c | 1,014$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,003$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…8556backed Yes | 12c | 710.68$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 9c | 540$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…6920backed Yes | 7c | 528.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed Yes | 10c | 510.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 503.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7215…bd1dbacked Yes | 4c | 450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 4c | 410.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 6c | 385$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 240 | 21.3%51 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 353.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 10c | 339$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3771…c058backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 11c | 274$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 8c | 242.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 6c | 164.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 154.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…0bdbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marcel Ciolacu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?this page
- Will Anton Pisaroglu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Elena Lasconi win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Mircea Geoană win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Nicolae Ciucă win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Nicușor Dan win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
- Will someone else win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.